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The story of the 2026 NFL Draft's quarterback class will be defined by its thinning at the top. Fernando Mendoza is the odds-on favorite to go 1.01. If he declares, Oregon's Dante Moore shouldn't last much longer. But this isn't the class the football world was sold, and teams' actions early in the offseason will reflect that.
Instead, we are left with an unsteady crop of quarterbacks, many of whom decided to return to school. The seniors that aren't afforded that option are headed to the league with less hype than the summer suggested and little expectations of rookie-year playing time.
In an NFL era that has rendered the Day 2 quarterback an endangered species, several passers may fall into Day 3. While that has consequences for their rookie contracts, it could also open the door for more competitive teams offering a promising path to development.
Top fits for mid-round quarterbacks
Garrett Nussmeier, LSU: Arizona Cardinals
A Day 2 option that I've penciled into prior mock drafts is Nussmeier heading to the desert. It may not come as early as initially anticipated, but there's reason to believe that both parties could benefit from a fresh start.
Kyler Murray has proven he isn't the answer in Arizona. He may return for one last stand, but at some point, the Cardinals will need a new option under center. Unlike the out-of-structure prowess that Murray enjoys, Nussmeier projects more like a game manager. Similar to Jacoby Brissett, Nussmeier can win pre-snap and run the offense as it's intended, opening up the middle of the field and feeding receivers with more consistent targets.
The Cardinals prefer Brissett's style to Murray. Opting for Nussmeier provides a similar skill set with more credibility as a long-term option.
Nussmeier dealt with an injury to his midsection and wasn't quite as polished in 2025. As the floor drops on his stock, Arizona can take a shot on a new passer without wasting resources on a potential first-round prospect in 2027.
John Mateer, Oklahoma: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers have been beneficiaries of Baker Mayfield's career resurgence. Unfortunately for Tampa, his step back has left them closer to quarterback purgatory than they would like to admit.
I'm lower than most on Mayfield, but this isn't an indictment on his status as next year's quarterback. He'll likely return and do so with the optimism of a healthier squad (and probably a new head coach). We know that this offense can work around Mayfield's measurable shortcomings, and living with his volatility has been a welcome part of the experience. Thus, a pivot to Mateer in April makes sense.
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Mateer wouldn't start right away, but his similarities to Mayfield make him a viable backup in this offense and provide the Buccaneers with an off-ramp if contract talks get messy.
Mateer needs development before he starts on Sundays. He's more comfortable out of structure than inside it, draws pressure on himself in the pocket, and can be too reliant on his legs. Still, that mobility should amplify a below-average backfield in ways that Mayfield's scrambling has not.
At Oklahoma, Mateer's play style and moxie made him the Sooners' spiritual successor to Mayfield. He could have a similar opportunity in a perpetually-winnable NFC South.
Carson Beck, Miami: Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis has created a special kind of catastrophe. Daniel Jones seems likely to return, albeit off an Achilles and not necessarily ready for Week 1. With limited mobility, he's a tough passer to trust. An orbital fracture further curtailed Anthony Richardson's development. I don't know what the Year 4 version of him looks like, and after his historically poor performances in 2024, I'm not sure I (nor Shane Steichen) want to find out.
The Colts don't have the ammo to take an early-round passer, either. This is a room that, as currently constructed, has one of the lowest floors in football.
Indianapolis needs a polished passer who can keep Steichen's offense on the tracks and do enough for the ground game to churn out victories. Early on Day 3, Miami's Carson Beck might be the best bet to do so.
Despite flashing early in the year (and entering the 2025 cycle as the preseason QB1), Beck profiles as a backup who has more present-day competence than long-term upside. He's played a lot of college ball against premium competition and has enough tools to trust with playing time. Throw in the allure of Steichen's wizardry and squint hard enough, and Beck is a low-risk dice roll of getting the Colts out of this mess.
Drew Allar, Penn State: Detroit Lions
It was a nightmare season for everyone in Happy Valley, none more than Drew Allar.
Once a first-round hopeful, Allar began the cycle as a Day 2 option with enough upside to get Round 1 looks. He struggled in 2025, and an ankle injury ended his college career.
There is significant uncertainty in this profile. His broken ankle could dampen his athleticism, limit a skill-set that wasn't particularly twitchy, or keep him from getting crucial reps for his intangible development. He could also be fine! But no longer is Allar a polarizing passer for teams to take at a discount.
Allar never proved he could cash in on his elite physical traits, even with Penn State's army of top recruits. Now, he enters the league without a real platform year and injury concerns headlining his profile.
Allar needs to land on a team with a strong offensive infrastructure and no demand to play in Year 1. Few teams check those boxes like the Detroit Lions. Jared Goff isn't going anywhere anytime soon, and it doesn't make sense to move him until after the 2026 season, regardless of his performance.
Yet, the Lions' window is closing fast, and as Super Bowl aspirations shrink, patience for Goff will follow. There's a world in which the 2027 Lions are led by another quarterback, leaving at least one season for Allar to get healthy and develop in the incubator of Detroit's offense. Armed with an elite ground game, quality receivers, and a good young coach, Allar makes about as much sense on paper as a Day 3 project can get.
Cole Payton, North Dakota State: Carolina Panthers
There's a fog of war that comes with evaluating NDSU talents. The talent gap between the Bison and their competition is as fierce as any in college football, and their NFL quarterbacks have reflected that uncertainty. Carson Wentz was an MVP favorite who quickly became a castaway. Easton Stick never stuck, and Trey Lance will start in Week 18 on his third team in as many years.
Payton doesn't have to follow any of those paths, but the pre-draft circuit will be crucial in selling himself to NFL evaluators.
The Panthers can't get away with drafting a quarterback in Round 1, especially if they win in Week 18 and get to host a playoff game. That doesn't change their circumstances under center, where Young has taken a bumpy road to below average.
Eventually, Carolina will look to move off of Young and the limitations of being the league's shortest passer. Payton offers an imposing frame as a rusher and surplus arm talent, earning him some looks as a potential starter. Sitting behind Young gives him a chance to learn under quarterback guru Dave Canales, and if he gets a chance to play, that same volatility could serve the Panthers well.
If Payton starts and plays well, Carolina can strike gold and justify moving on from Young. If the jump from NDSU to the NFL is too large for Payton to clear, he might be bad enough to get the Panthers a top pick. In either scenario, he's unlikely to set the career mark for lowest yards per completion, unlike Carolina's current quarterback.
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