Pirates' Paul Skenes predicted to have best pitching season in over a decade in 2026

It's harder to imagine a better start to a Major League career than what Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes has done since his debut in 2024.

Not only has he dominated the Majors, but he's more than proven he's one of, if not the best, pitchers in the league. In two years, he has a Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, and a 1.96 ERA across 55 starts.

But he could get even better in 2026. MLB.com's Brent Maguire made a bold prediction that Skenes would turn in the best pitching season in over a decade with a 10 bWAR season. It's a lofty goal, and for Skenes, it's not that unrealistic.

Pirates' Paul Skenes predicted to have 10 bWAR 2026 season

"Skenes posts a 10+ WAR season," Maguire predicts. "Skenes looks like a generational talent and could very well raise his game even more in 2026 and beyond."

The last 10-plus WAR season for a pitcher came in 2009, when Zack Greinke posted a 10.4 bWAR season for the Kansas City Royals.

Can Skene actually accomplish this bold prediction? It's not impossible. He had 7.7 bWAR in 32 starts and 187.2 innings pitched last season for the Pirates.

While he had the starts down, the issue for Skenes is the innings pitched. Greinke had 229.1 innings pitched for the Royals in 2009 in his 10.4 bWAR season.

Skenes needs to go deeper into games if he want's to have a 10 WAR season. While his 1.97 ERA is a great start, he needs to pitch more innings if he hopes to accomplish this bold prediction from Maguire.

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Last season, he averaged a little under 1.0 bWAR per 23 innings. If he maintains that pace, Skenes would need to add over 50 innings of work to have a chance at 10 WAR.

He's a fantastic pitcher, but adding 50 innings or so, while keeping his same level of dominance, would be a tall task for Skenes. Modern pitchers don't go that deep into games anymore, and Skenes is no different.

While he's capable of such a season, it's not likely at all. But that's why Maguire's prediction is a bold one. It's a lofty goal, and it might not be attainable.

However, if there were a pitcher in today's game who could have such a season, it would be Skenes. If he somehow had such a season, it would be the best year of any pitcher since Grienke's 2009, and cement Skenes as the current best pitcher in the Majors.

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