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Miami (Ohio) is far from a national powerhouse. But its glittering record, coupled with its polarizing resume, has made it one of the biggest headliners ahead of Selection Sunday.
The RedHawks became just the 21st side to finish a regular season unbeaten. Their strong play — and luck — came to a swift and sudden halt in their opening match in the MAC tournament. Miami suffered its first blemish against UMass. And while its glint record should be enough to secure postseason qualification, things aren't certain.
The MAC hasn't sent multiple representatives to March Madness since 1999. The RedHawks' strength of schedule offers insight into why that is the case: Miami hasn't faced off against all that many good teams.
With that, here's an exhaustive look at the Travis Steele's side's strength of schedule — and what it could mean for its tournament hopes.
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Miami (Ohio) strength of schedule
The RedHawks' flaunt the nation's best record. But beneath the hood, things aren't quite as rosy as they appear.
Miami played easier foes than most across the regular season, with just 11 of its wins coming against sides with records above .500. With no Quad 1 wins and three victories coming against non-Division I opponents, all that glittered was not gold for the RedHawks, who figure to be knocked down a peg when seeding is revealed on Sunday.
Here's a look at where Miami ranks based on advanced strength of schedule metrics.
KenPom
Of the 365 Division I sides in the country, the RedHawks' -5.69 strength of schedule rating ranks 269th in the country. Miami, despite its near faultless record, is only the 93rd-best side in the country, according to KenPom's rankings, well outside of the top-68.
The RedHawks perform even worse in regards to non-conference play, with KenPom ranking their non-conference strength of schedule fourth-worst in the country. In other words, Miami's opponents weren't just middling. They were outright poor. If not for the RedHawks' near pristine record, it would have been hard to justify Miami's inclusion in the tournament field as an at-large side.
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NET
Miami is a bubble team as far as NET ranking is concerned, sitting at No. 64 following its defeat to UMass. The RedHawks' record may be eye-catching. But they're lacking any matchups with Quad 1 sides and have just two Quad 2 wins -- an 83-76 victory over Wright State and a 76-73 win over Akron.
The RedHawks cleaned up against Quad 3 and Quad 4 teams, posting a 26-1 record combined in those matches. Still, their lack of quality wins -- or quality opponents, for that matter -- could loom large on Selection Sunday.
ESPN's strength of schedule
The RedHawks have the No. 298-best strength of schedule in the nation based on ESPN's metrics, surrounded by other mid-major sides like 9-22 Bryant and 7-24 St. Francis. ESPN's Power Index lists Miami as having zero quality wins. Its non-conference strength of schedule is even worse, placing 362 out of 365 teams.
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Wins Above Bubble (WAB)
While other metrics indicate things could be a bit dicey for Miami on Selection Sunday, Wins Above Bubble (WAB) doesn't. The dataset, which measures how many more or fewer wins a team has against its schedule than would be expected from a bubble team, ranked the RedHawks No. 33 prior to their defeat to the Minutemen, comfortably in the tournament field.
WAB is a favorite among voters, a resume-based metric that is used to compare sides that have faced vastly different strengths of schedules. Miami's loss might have hurt. But WAB appears to be sympathetic, predicting that the RedHawks make the tournament with ease.
Kevin Pauga Index
Miami sits at No. 53 in the Kevin Pauga Index (KPI), a metric which "ranks teams' resumes on a game-by-game basis", according to the NCAA. Every team's win and loss is rated on a positive-to-negative scale, with the range of each result sitting between -1.0 (worst possible loss) and 1.0 (best possible win). The formula takes into account opponent win percentage, opponent strength of schedule, scoring margin, pace of game, location and opponent KPI ranking.
While the RedHawks don't boast the most impressive mark, that No. 53 compares favorably to other tournament hopefuls like Texas A&M (No. 50), Iowa (No. 51), Yale (No. 55) and Seton Hall (No. 57), all of whom were included as tournament teams in Bill Bender's latest bracket prediction.
Strength of record
Miami's strength of record is No. 28 in the country, according to ESPN. The RedHawks benefit from their sizzling performances against lackluster sides and, based on strength of record metric, would be a slam-dunk tourney side.
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Who did Miami (Ohio) lose to?
Miami fell to UMass in the MAC quarterfinals, surrendering a double-digit lead en route to an 87-83 loss on March 12. UMass finished the regular season with a 16-15 record with a 7-11 record in the MAC.
— CBB Kings (@CBBKings) March 12, 2026MAC basketball standings 2026
| 1 | Miami | 31-1 (18-0) |
| 2 | Akron | 27-5 (17-1) |
| 3 | Kent State | 24-8 (14-4) |
| 4 | Toledo | 18-14 (11-7) |
| 5 | Bowling Green | 18-14 (9-9) |
| 6 | Ohio | 15-17 (9-9) |
| 7 | UMass | 17-15 (7-11) |
| 8 | Buffalo | 17-15 (7-11) |
| 9 | Ball State | 12-19 (7-11) |
| 10 | Central Michigan | 10-21 (6-12) |
| 11 | Western Michigan | 10-21 (4-14) |
| 12 | Northern Illinois | 9-21 (4-14) |
| 13 | Eastern Michigan | 10-21 (4-14) |
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Miami (Ohio) seed projection
The RedHawks are currently projected to finish as a double-digit seed in this year's tournament, with predictions ranging from No. 10 (TSN's Bill Bender) to No. 11 (ESPN's Joe Lunardi). All signs are pointing to Miami being a tournament team, although it remains to be seen just where it will begin its trek through March Madness.
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