Dolphins get bad news on Tua Tagovailoa trade rumors amid ESPN prediction

The Miami Dolphins would almost certainly love to trade away Tua Tagovailoa this offseason. He's costing the Dolphins $54 million in 2026, and a whole lot more going forward.

His struggles in 2025 led the Dolphins to bench him to close out the regular season, and now, Tagovailoa is likely headed to a new team this offseason.

But, unfortunately for the Dolphins, it doesn't look likely to be in a trade. ESPN's Dan Graziano outlined why, which coincides with a measly 5% trade prediction for the $212 million quarterback.

Dolphins get bad news on Tua Tagovailoa trade amid 5% prediction

"More likely, Miami will end up having to cut Tagovailoa and swallow $99.2 million in dead cap charges as a result of a long-term extension that looks extremely ill-advised in retrospect," Graziano writes.

The Dolphins aren't likely to find a trade partner for Tagovailoa this offseason, and in turn, they will be forced to take on nearly $100 million in dead cap space.

Jon-Eric Sullivan can designate him as a Post June-1 cut, which would spread that dead cap hit over the next two seasons.

But, regardless of how it's done, the Dolphins will be on the hook for nearly $100 million in dead cap space if they cut Tagovailoa, which, based on Graziano's comment and ESPN's "Predicted chance of getting traded" being just 5%, looks to be the case.

More: ESPN analyst thinks Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa decision has already been made

Tagovailoa threw 20 touchdown passes in 2025, but also had a career-high 15 interceptions. His struggles, combined with the massive cap hit, make Tagovailoa a very unappealing trade target.

A team that might have interest would be better off waiting for the Dolphins to cut him to sign the lefty in free agency for the veteran minimum.

This prediction from ESPN is some bad news for the Dolphins, as their chance to trade Tagovailoa away this offseason looks incredibly slim.

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