Who will represent the ACC in the playoff? How Virginia’s loss to Wake Forest muddied the CFP race

The ACC race is far from over.

On Saturday night, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons upset No. 14 Virginia, 16-9, on the road. The result has major implications for both the ACC standings and the College Football Playoff race.

Virginia starting quarterback Chandler Morris left the game at halftime and was ruled out for the remainder of the contest. Backup Daniel Kaelin played admirably, but Virginia’s offense was not the same without Morris under center.

Despite a last-second pass attempt on 4th-and-3, Wake Forest pulled off a huge upset. Heading into Saturday, the Cavaliers had an inside track to the CFP and the ACC title game. Now, however, the ACC standings are a mess.

Who will represent the ACC is the college football playoff?

That will likely determine the future ACC champion via the ACC title game on Saturday, Dec. 6, in Charlotte, N.C. The top two ACC teams will face each other, and at this point, there is a three-way tie for first place in the conference between Virginia, Georgia Tech, and Pitt. The league is unlikely to get an at-large team into the College Football Playoff field.

Is Virginia out of the college football playoff?

Virginia now has two losses, to NC State and Wake Forest, both of which are unranked. The Cavaliers likely need to find a way into the ACC title game—and win it—to make the College Football Playoff.

In last week’s initial CFP rankings, Virginia held the No. 11 seed as the projected ACC champion. The Cavs were the only ACC team represented in the 12-team bracket, meaning the committee currently views the ACC champion as the conference’s only likely playoff entrant.

Which schools benefit most from Virginia's loss to Wake?

It mainly helps Georgia Tech and Pitt, who are tied at 5-1 in the ACC. The two will face each other on Nov. 22, which should give a clearer picture of who will reach the ACC title game. Georgia Tech will likely be the highest-ranked ACC team this week, which means the Yellow Jackets are likely to appear in the projected playoff bracket when it is refreshed on Tuesday.

Other teams are still in the mix. SMU is also 5-1 in the ACC but lost 13-12 to Wake Forest earlier in the season. Duke sits at 4-1 after a loss to UConn, while Louisville was upset by Cal on Saturday, dropping to 4-2.

ACC standings

Here’s a look at the updated ACC standings. Georgia Tech had a Week 11 bye, as did Pitt, which entered Saturday tied with the Yellow Jackets for second place. SMU defeated Boston College 45-13 on Saturday; the Mustangs’ only loss came earlier to Wake Forest.

Behind Georgia Tech and Virginia is Duke. The Blue Devils lost 37-34 to UConn on Saturday, but since that was a non-conference game, Duke remains 4-1 in the ACC. Louisville was upset by Cal, falling to 4-2 in conference play.

ACC Championship Game tiebreaker

The ACC officially did away with divisions last season. So instead of the previous Atlantic and Coastal divisions, the two teams with the best win percentage will play in Charlotte, N.C. However, the conference does have some tiebreaker scenarios in the event of  teams tied up top. 

Here are those scenarios, via the ACC: 
 

A. For a two-team tie, head-to-head competition between the two tied teams. 

B. Win-percentage against all common opponents. 

C. Win-percentage against common opponents based upon their order of finish (overall conference win percentage with ties broken) and proceeding through other common opponents based upon their order of finish. 

D. Combined win-percentage of conference opponents. 

E. The tied team with the highest ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics folllowing the conclusion of regular-season games. 

F. The participant shall be chosen by a draw as administered by the commissioner or commissioner's designee.

If there are three or more teams tied at the top of the standings, a similar procedure will take place:

A. Combined head-to-head win-percentage among the tied teams if all tied teams are common opponents. 

B. If all tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that defeated each of the other tied teams.

C. Win percentage against all common opponents. 

D. Win percentage against common opponents based upon their order of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken) and proceeding through other common opponents based upon their order of finish. 

E. Combined win-percentage of conference opponents. 

F. The tied team with the highest ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics following the conclusion of regular season games. G. The participant shall be chosen by a draw as administered by the Commissioner or Commissioner's designee.