Three teams to avoid advancing deep in your March Madness bracket

There are No. 12 seeds who beat No. 5 seeds every year. At this point, it is just accepted that one or two five seeds will not make the second round of the NCAA men’s college basketball tournament. But who are some even higher-seeded teams to watch out for while filling out your bracket?

In a similar article before last season, I spoke of avoiding St. John’s. This was helpful as the Red Storm lost in the second round to Arkansas and went home. Besides them, it was a straightforward tournament. Kansas and Marquette lost but they were sliding as they entered the tournament. Most people had them going out early anyhow. But, for just the second time ever, all four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four.

This year is a bit different. But not much. The top three teams are already set in stone with Duke, Michigan and Arizona assured top seeds. There is a bit of wiggle room with the final top seed although logic says it should be Florida. The defending national champions. But there is still some talk about Houston or UConn making a run to overtake them.

Here are three team who are on upset watch before the start of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. 

Purdue, 23-8 overall, 13-7 Big Ten (projected 3 seed)

Purdue came into the 2025-26 season with Brayden Smith, the favorite to win the Player of the Year trophy leading their roster. They were favored by two games to win the Big Ten and the only question was if they would finish another season undefeated at home.

Now they are a projected No. 3 seed, they lost five games at home, and they finished sixth in the Big Ten conference. 

They finished their regular season with a 97-93 home loss to Wisconsin and despite all this, they are still being shown on a top three seed line.

A lot of this has to do with the teams they played including Arizona, Michigan, Michigan State and Illinois. But a lot of it also has to do with the pre-season belief of the Boilermakers being the best team in the nation. This notion has not worn off yet and Purdue will reap the rewards.

Purdue had some good offensive stats. Their 30.1 percent for field goals made per game ranks 18th in the country. Of these made field goals, only 9.5 per game were from behind the three-point line, ranking 62nd nationally and they only tried 24.5, which ranked 128th overall. With Smith leading the way at the point, Purdue was third in the country with 19.5 assists per game. But their ability to rebound, which ranked 149th at just 11.2 per game on offense, allowed for second-chance points and limited the Boilermakers to 82.3 ppg and ranked 50th in the country. 

While the offense was shaky, the defense needs to improve vastly if Purdue plans on advancing.

The Boilermakers allowed opponents to make 44.5% of their FG attempts, which put them 262nd in the country. Their three-point defense was even worse, allowing 8.9 made three-pointers on 26.0 attempts. These ranked 314th and 317th in the nation, respectively. This might be the weakness of Purdue and the reason to fade them making a far run in March.p

UConn, 27-4 overall, 17-3 Big East (projected 2 seed)

UConn is never a fun team to predict. It was just two seasons ago when the Huskies won back-to-back championships. Being the favorite from the jump of the season was the story. But the season before, when they won their first, they entered March Madness as a No. 4 seed before driving through the West Region and did not win a game by less than 10 points. This shows the ability of Dan Hurley to get the most out of his players at any time. But this year just looks different.

Although it only has four losses, UConn is not the same level as they were in past years.

The Huskies finished the regular season ranked 68th in FGs made per game while ranking 88th in two-pointers made and 120th from beyond the arc. The Huskies were a low volume team making their games much closer in cases than they should have been. This fact led directly to a late season loss to a 12-19 Marquette team. A defeat which kept them from being the top seed in the Big East tournament. One which will also cost them a number one-seed in next week's NCAA Tournament. 

More: Where Arkansas Darius Acuff Jr. ranks among John Calipari's best NBA guards

The reason UConn was able to have the record they did was their defense. An area in which the Huskies allowed just 65.5 ppg, which ranked them 12th, while scoring 78.2 points for themselves.

If UConn goes against a team that can hit from 3-point land, this will be a short tournament, and not a happy offseason for Hurley in Storrs.

Arkansas Razorbacks, 23-8 overall, 13-5 SEC (projected 3 or 4 seed)

Arkansas has the offense and the elite players to contend with anyone. But they also have the inconsistency to lose to anyone.

After losing 111-77 to Florida on February 28, the Razorbacks finished the season with a 111-85 win over Texas and an 88-84 victory over Missouri. These wins gave Arkansas a second-place finish in the SEC regular season. Behind only the Florida Gators, who dropped the 34-point loss on them just two weeks ago.

The one player Arkansas and John Calapari can count on is 6-foot-3 guard Darius Acuff. The newcomer swept the awards this season being named SEC player and rookie of the Year and was named to the first team for All-Conference and All-Freshman squads in the SEC.

Acuff played in and started 30 games as a Freshman. He averaged 34.7 minutes and hit 7.8 of 15.8 FG attempts. He also averaged 22.2 ppg while gathering 6.3 assisting per game and 3.0 rebounds. He also averaged just 2.0 turnovers and 1.6 personal fouls per contest, showing his ability to control himself even at challenging times.

One of those tough times came on February 18 against Alabama. While Arkansas lost in a double-overtime thriller by a score of 117-115, Acuff played all 50 minutes while having 49 points of 16-27 shooting. This included going 6-10 from beyond the arc, with five rebounds and five assists. By far the best game this season by any player in the sport. This give John Calipari the confidence to know his star Freshman could take over again if needed.

With a great offense but an equally bad defense, Arkansas might need Acuff and more to make a deep run in March.

More: Adrian Autry says the quiet part out loud about Syracuse's future

While Arkansas ranked fourth nationally in scoring offense at 90.2 ppg, they ranked 330th in the nation allowing 80.2 ppg to their opponents. The Hogs were out rebounded on the offensive glass with a 11.0 to 11.5 margin, which ranked them 305th in the country. If they find themselves against a team with size to rebound, they will have similar trouble to the struggles they faced against Florida.

They might still be able to make it through to Sweet 16 but if they get paired against Duke or Michigan in a one vs. four game, it will be a long night for the Razorbacks. Either way, their inconsistency makes them a dangerous play to go far.

More college basketball news:

• Darryn Peterson situation not alarming to NBA teams, ESPN insider says
• AJ Dybantsa makes college basketball history never done by NBA stars
• John Calipari says college athletics is broken — Here’s his plan to fix it
• Mike Krzyzewski fights against NCAA Tournament expansion
• Where Arkansas Darius Acuff Jr. ranks among John Calipari's best NBA guards