Starmer Rivals Make Play for Labour’s Disaffected Base in UK

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“There have been far too many missteps,” said Sarwar — a former Starmer ally who last month called for the premier to go.

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Labour activists are privately fretting about May’s local and regional elections. Under pressure from Reform and the left-wing Welsh nationalists of Plaid Cymru, they risk losing control of the Welsh Parliament, known as the Senedd, for the first time since the legislature’s creation in 1999.

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Reform also threatens in outer London, while the growing popularity of the Greens among young people and in more urban areas means Labour figures now believe the party will lose councils to them in the capital. That could mean Green councils being elected in traditionally safe Labour areas, compounding anxieties for the governing party’s Members of Parliament ahead of the next general election due by mid-2029. 

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London Mayor Sadiq Khan on Wednesday called on Labour to drop its opposition to rejoining the EU and make undoing the 2016 Brexit referendum a centerpiece of its next campaign. “I’m quite clear in terms of what needs to happen, which is, we should join the European Union,” the three-term Labour mayor told the Italian newspaper La Repubblica, echoing a similar call by Polanski. 

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Last month, Starmer faced a moment of peril when Sarwar called for him to quit. He survived after his entire cabinet publicly declared support. But many MPs believe losses in May’s elections could portend another danger-point. Even Blairite cabinet minister Wes Streeting — seen as a likely leadership candidate — has spent recent months honing more left-wing credentials. 

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According to YouGov, the Greens’ popularity in London has risen 8 points in the past six months, at one point overtaking Labour. One Labour councilor in a key London seat told Bloomberg they feared a near-wipe out in less than two months’ time. 

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Confronted with polling showing the Greens on track to take his seat, Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy told the New Statesman that he was 100% confident that wouldn’t happen because voters in Tottenham have never opted for “the far-left.”

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That’s how the government sees Polanski’s economic vision. Speaking Wednesday at a garden center near Lammy’s constituency, the Greens’ leader promised to introduce a wealth tax and increase capital gains tax while advocating £8.4 billion ($11.2 billion) of support for household energy bills. He said he would nationalize the water industry, introduce rent controls, and examine proposals for a universal basic income.

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But some of the Green leader’s proposals — such as looking to wipe out student debt and relaxing fiscal rules to allow for more borrowing — chime with the demands of many within Labour. Polanski echoed previous remarks by Burnham by calling for the government to “exit the bond market doom loop.”

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There are signs Starmer is listening. By refusing to lead the UK into the war with Iran alongside the US, he’s eschewed the approach taken by Tony Blair, who led Britain into the Iraq War more than two decades ago.

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One official told Bloomberg that Starmer’s office — having spent the last year avoiding such a confrontation — has now realized that being criticized by the US president, who’s deeply unpopular among Britons, reflects positively in polling.  Ipsos on Monday showed Brits who think he would be the most capable prime minister rose by 4 points in the oast two months.

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The departure of Morgan McSweeney — the architect of Labour’s 2024 election success — last month has also fueled speculation that the party may shift leftwards. For now, investors are less concerned with Polanski’s Greens than they are with the Labour left he’s energized.

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“It’s hard to dedicate too much time and bandwidth to the Green’s just because a general election is so far away,” said James Athey, Marlborough Investment Management. Bond investors are more focused on the internal Labour Party “threat from the left,” he said. 

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—With assistance from Alex Wickham and Will Standring.

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