Olympic hockey tiebreakers, explained: How No. 1 seed between Canada, USA will be determined by group play results

Canada and the United States have unsurprisingly been two of the most dominant teams in the preliminary round of Olympic men's hockey in Milan, but only one can enter the tournament phase of competition as the top seed.

The race for the No. 1 seed might come down to a tiebreaker, rather than win totals. If the United States and Canada each finish with three regulation wins, figuring out who avoids the No. 2 seed will require some math.

Here's what you need to know about Olympic hockey tiebreakers and how the No. 1 seed will be determined between the U.S. and Canada.

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Olympic hockey tiebreakers, explained

For two teams with the same number of points in the same group, the tiebreaker is the result of their head-to-head game. Two teams in different groups, however, cannot rely on a head-to-head matchup to determine a seeding tiebreaker.

That means the No. 1 seed comes down to goal differential. Whichever team has the higher goal differential through three games will receive the No. 1 seed, while the team with the lower goal differential slips to the No. 2 seed.

If the goal differential is even, the tie would be decided by which team scored more goals, regardless of goal differential. 

The complete procedure for seeding the Olympic hockey tournament can be found here.

What is goal differential?

Goal differential is simply a team's margin of victory and margin of defeat from the preliminary round added up. For example, if a team wins its first game by three goals, then loses a game by one and wins its final game by two, its goal differential would be +4. 

Entering their final games of the preliminary round, Canada had a goal differential of +9, while the USA had a differential of +7. That put the U.S. in the difficult position of needing to defeat Germany by a margin of at least two more goals than Canada's margin of victory against France, assuming both won as heavy favorites.

MORE: Full box score from Canada's matchup with France

Canada hockey schedule, results

Canada entered Sunday's game 2-0 with a goal differential of +9.

USA hockey schedule, results

The United States entered Sunday 2-0 with a goal differential of +7.

MORE: 2026 Olympic hockey top goal scorers

Who is the No. 1 seed in Olympic hockey bracket?

The No. 1 seed has yet to be determined, but Canada entered Sunday with a two-goal advantage in goal differential and jumped out to a sizable lead against France as it tried to hang onto the top spot.

The No. 1 seed could be an especially massive advantage in this year's tournament, as the No. 2 seed has a strong chance to face Sweden in the quarterfinals. While both Canada and the U.S. feel they can win against anyone in the tournament, Sweden is uncharacteristically talented for a potential No. 7 and wouldn't be an easy out.

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Olympic hockey bracket

Here's a look at the projected Olympic hockey bracket before Canada and the U.S. played separate games on Sunday:

1. Canada (qualified for quarterfinals)
2. United States
3. Slovakia (qualified for quarterfinals)
4. Finland
5. Switzerland
6. Latvia
7. Sweden
8. Czechia
9. Germany
10. Denmark
11. France
12. Italy

All 12 teams advance past the preliminary round, but every team outside the top four seeds must play a playoff game to qualify for the quarterfinals. The top four seeds will automatically advance to the quarterfinals.