Oil Jumps as Major Energy Assets Targeted in Mideast Conflict

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(Bloomberg) — Oil rose after attacks on some of the Middle East’s most important energy facilities, raising concerns of a more severe impact from the almost three-week-old conflict. 

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Brent advanced as much as 5.1% to almost $113 a barrel, while the most-active contract for West Texas Intermediate was near $96. US natural gas jumped as much as 6.5%. Iran carried out attacks on a major LNG site in Qatar, one of several energy assets it pledged to target following strikes on the Islamic Republic’s giant South Pars gas field. 

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Oil has surged about 50% since the start of the war, which has wrought chaos across the Middle East — choking off the Strait of Hormuz to shipping and slashing a swath of oil and gas production. However, Iran’s upstream energy industry had been largely spared until now, helping to contain the prospect of an escalation that could have a bigger impact on longer-term supply.

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“The market is still underestimating and not fully pricing the risk of how quickly this could escalate into direct hits on wider Gulf energy infrastructure,” said Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer at Karobaar Capital LP in Chicago. “If this escalates into direct hits then $120 won’t be the ceiling, it’ll be the starting point. To see $140 to $160 won’t be crazy at all,” he added, referring to Brent prices.

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President Donald Trump said the US didn’t know about Israel’s assault on the South Pars gas field, but threatened to “blow up the entirety” of the deposit with US forces if Qatari assets get hit further. He said earlier this week that targeting oil infrastructure on Iran’s main export hub, Kharg Island, remains on the table following earlier bombing of military targets there.

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“The pressure on the Strait of Hormuz means that President Trump cannot simply declare victory and walk away, as that would not resolve the underlying issue,” said Will Todman, senior fellow in Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Many of the options President Trump has to increase pressure on Iran would send energy prices even higher, including attempting to seize Kharg Island or striking Iran’s energy production infrastructure.”

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Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City — the complex that houses the world’s biggest LNG export plant — suffered “extensive damage” after a missile strike, while a subsequent attack led to a fire, local authorities said. South Pars is important for supply to the domestic market as well as to neighboring Iraq and Turkey. Associated oil and petrochemical assets were also struck at Asaluyeh in the Islamic Republic.

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“A retaliatory attack on Ras Laffan is exactly what the global natural gas market feared the most, following the strikes at Iran’s South Pars processing plants earlier in the day,” said Tom Marzec-Manser, Europe gas and LNG director at Wood Mackenzie Ltd. “We’re yet to know which part of the industrial complex has been damaged, but either way it’s going to be bullish for gas prices when the market opens on Thursday.”