Mets updated odds to trade Luke Weaver from ESPN are unexpectedly high

The New York Mets are going to sell at the 2026 MLB trade deadline. They've already begun this sell-off, shipping David Peterson to the Chicago Cubs and A.J. Minter to the Minnesota Twins.

Brooks Raley, Freddy Peralta, and Clay Holmes are sure to follow. But, when it comes to Luke Weaver, there is one big difference: control. All those other players are free agents at season's end. Weaver is under contract for 2027.

However, ESPN's Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel revealed the updated odds for Weaver to be traded. Those odds are unexpectedly high, sitting at 70% chance for Weaver to be traded by the Mets this summer.

Mets have 70% chance of trading Luke Weaver

"18. Luke Weaver, RHP, New York Mets. Chance of being traded: 70%," Passan and McDaniel projected. "... He's exactly what teams are seeking this time of year."

Weaver is in the first year of a two-year, $22 million contract he signed over the offseason. He's been awesome so far, posting a 1.88 ERA with 1.9 bWAR in 41 games and 43 innings pitched.

It would make a lot of sense if the Mets kept him for the 2027 season, as he'd be a key cog in the team's bullpen for a postseason run.

However, there appears to be a real chance, 70% according to ESPN, that Weaver is traded. That's unexpectedly high, though it does make some sense.

At this year's deadline, in a seller's market, the Mets are sure to receive a ton of interest in Weaver. There's a good chance he's the best reliever who is traded this summer, with Mason Miller not likely to be traded.

MORE: Mets have no plan to offer contract extension to Freddy Peralta amid trade rumors

For clubs in need of bullpen help, like the New York Yankees, Pittsburgh Pirates, Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, and Tampa Bay Rays, among many others, Weaver might be the best possible and realistic trade target.

The Mets seemingly are seriously considering a trade of Weaver, with his odds of being dealt at 70%. Plus, he's under control for one more season at a fairly reasonable contract.

While the 32-year-old might not be as valuable as Mason Miller would be in a trade, Weaver should still fetch a large return at this year's deadline if dealt.

ESPN projects the odds of a trade to be 70%, which are high odds. Of course, until the deadline passes and Weaver is either traded or not, there will be some doubt. But, for now, it appears there's a decent chance Weaver is on the move this summer.

More MLB news:

• Phillies intrigued by Blue Jays trade idea for Jeff Hoffman and Daulton Varsho
• Astros among teams calling Giants about Logan Webb’s trade availability
• Yankees linked to Padres for potential rotation for bullpen swap
• Diamondbacks linked to Nationals’ Luis Garcia Jr. as perfect trade fit
• Red Sox predicted to trade for Tigers’ Gleyber Torres at deadline