March Madness predictions 2026: Using AI to pick NCAA Tournament bracket upsets, Final Four

If you’re looking for help filling out your 2026 March Madness bracket, Sporting News has you covered. We have brackets from college experts Bill Bender and Mike DeCourcy. Vinnie Iyer is giving you his bracket straight from KenPom. And if you’re a believer in artificial intelligence, we have its picks as well.

Gemini is an AI model from Google designed to provide data-driven analysis for complex queries. We fed it the 2026 men’s tournament bracket and asked for its predictions, including the likeliest upsets and the path to the Final Four in Indianapolis.

Here’s how Gemini responded when asked who would win every matchup in the tournament (upsets in bold).

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March Madness bracket predictions 2026

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East Region picks

FIRST ROUND

1 Duke over 16 Siena

8 Ohio State over 9 TCU

12 Northern Iowa over 5 St. John's

4 Kansas over 13 Cal Baptist

6 Louisville over 11 South Florida

3 Michigan State over 14 North Dakota State

7 UCLA over 10 UCF

2 UConn over 15 Furman

SECOND ROUND

1 Duke over 8 Ohio State

12 Northern Iowa over 4 Kansas

3 Michigan State over 6 Louisville

2 UConn over 7 UCLA

SWEET 16

1 Duke over 12 Northern Iowa

2 UConn over 3 Michigan State

ELITE EIGHT

1 Duke over 2 UConn

I picked Duke to win the East region due to their unique roster construction and historical efficiency metrics: Freshman Cameron Boozer has dominated the ACC, leading the conference in both scoring and rebounding.

The Blue Devils finished the regular season ranked in the top 5 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Historically, teams that maintain this balance are the most resilient against the high variance of the tournament.

Jon Scheyer's squad enters with the most Quad 1 wins in the country. Their backcourt, led by Caleb Foster, provides the steady veteran hand needed to navigate the defensive pressure typically applied by teams like UConn or Michigan State. 

-Gemini

SN AWARDS: All-America team | Boozer Player of the Year | Lloyd Coach of the Year

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West Region picks

FIRST ROUND

1 Arizona over 16 Long Island

8 Villanova over 9 Utah State

12 High Point over 5 Wisconsin

4 Arkansas over 13 Hawaii

6 BYU over 11 Texas/NC State

3 Gonzaga over 14 Kennesaw St

10 Missouri over 7 Miami

2 Purdue over 15 Queens

SECOND ROUND

1 Arizona over 8 Villanova

4 Arkansas over 12 High Point

6 BYU over 3 Gonzaga

2 Purdue over 10 Missouri

SWEET 16

1 Arizona over 4 Arkansas

2 Purdue over 6 BYU

ELITE EIGHT

1 Arizona over 2 Purdue

I favor Arizona winning the West region due to their roster continuity and explosive offensive ceiling. Freshman guard Brayden Burries has emerged as a cold-blooded closer. His ability to create his own shot late in the shot clock gives the Wildcats an edge in the tight, grind-it-out games typical of the second weekend.

Arizona ranks in the top 10 nationally in pace and scoring, but it’s their improved defensive rebounding—anchored by Motiejus Krivas—that prevents opponents from getting the second-chance points needed to pull off an upset.

The Wildcats have been nearly unbeatable out west this season, boasting a 32-2 record and a Big 12 tournament title.

-Gemini

HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5

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Midwest Region picks

FIRST ROUND

1 Michigan over 16 UMBC/Howard

8 Georgia over 9 Saint Louis

5 Texas Tech over 12 Akron

4 Alabama over 13 Hofstra

11 SMU over 6 Tennessee

3 Virginia over 14 Wright St

10 Santa Clara over 7 Kentucky

2 Iowa State over 15 Tennessee St

SECOND ROUND

1 Michigan over 8 Georgia

5 Texas Tech over 4 Alabama

3 Virginia over 11 SMU

2 Iowa State over 10 Santa Clara

SWEET 16

1 Michigan over 5 Texas Tech

2 Iowa State over 3 Virginia

ELITE EIGHT

2 Iowa State over 1 Michigan

I favor Iowa State winning the Midwest region because they are the nation’s premier giant killers under T.J. Otzelberger. Their path to the Final Four is backed by elite defensive metrics and veteran leadership that has already proven it can handle the top teams in the country this season. The Cyclones enter the tournament with a top-5 defensive efficiency rating nationally, utilizing a smothering system designed to force turnovers and neutralize high-octane offenses like Michigan or Alabama.

The engine behind this run is senior point guard Tamin Lipsey, who provides a level of veteran poise and perimeter containment that few tournament teams can match. As a three-time Big 12 All-Defensive selection, Lipsey acts as a coach on the floor, averaging 5.0 assists and 2.2 steals per game to limit the crucial mistakes that often sink contenders in March. He is complemented by Milan Momcilovic, whose floor spacing and scoring variety ensure the team can produce points even when the defense isn’t generating easy transition opportunities.

Ultimately, the Cyclones' success is rooted in their big-game pedigree and ability to thrive in the high-pressure environments of the Big 12. Having already logged significant wins over top seeds like Purdue and Houston this season, they are battle-tested and uniquely equipped to maintain their composure during a grind-it-out Elite Eight matchup. This combination of a lockdown defense and a poised backcourt makes them the most dangerous team in the Midwest bracket.

-Gemini

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South Region picks

FIRST ROUND

1 Florida over 16 Prairie View A&M/Lehigh

9 Iowa over 8 Clemson

5 Vanderbilt over 12 McNeese

4 Nebraska over 13 Troy

6 North Carolina over 11 VCU

3 Illinois over 14 Penn

10 Texas A&M over 7 Saint Mary's

2 Houston over 15 Idaho

SECOND ROUND

1 Florida over 9 Iowa

5 Vanderbilt over 4 Nebraska

3 Illinois over 6 North Carolina

2 Houston over 10 Texas A&M

MORE: 5 proven strategies to help win your March Madness pool

SWEET 16

1 Florida over 5 Vanderbilt

3 Illinois over 2 Houston

ELITE EIGHT

1 Florida over 3 Illinois

I favor Florida winning the South region because of their relentless rebounding and efficient interior scoring. The Gators lead the nation in rebounds per game, a physical advantage that allows them to control the tempo and limit second-chance opportunities for their opponents. With a deep rotation that features size at every position, they are uniquely equipped to wear down high-seeded rivals over the course of a tournament weekend.

The Gators' offensive engine is powered by the frontcourt duo of Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh, who provide both scoring versatility and a defensive presence in the paint. By ranking in the top 15 for both offensive rating and point differential, Florida has demonstrated a level of consistency that translates well to the neutral-court environments of the NCAA Tournament. Their ability to generate high-percentage looks inside makes them a nightmare for teams that lack significant frontcourt depth.

While the region features heavy hitters like Houston and Illinois, Florida’s recent momentum—having won 12 of their last 13 games heading into the tournament—gives them the psychological edge. They have already proven they can win high-leverage games against Top 10 opponents, and their superior rebounding margin often acts as a safety net during cold shooting stretches. This combination of physical dominance and late-season poise makes the Gators my pick to advance to Indianapolis.

-Gemini

HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5

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Final Four picks

1 Duke over 1 Florida

1 Arizona over 2 Iowa State

National Championship pick

1 Duke over 1 Arizona

Duke’s edge in the national championship comes down to their superior defensive versatility and backcourt maturity, which serves as the perfect counter to Arizona’s high-octane transition game. While the Wildcats thrive on a breakneck pace, Duke has spent the season mastering the "kill shot"—defensive stretches where they hold opponents scoreless for five minutes or more. In a high-stakes final, Duke's ability to force Arizona into a half-court grind will neutralize the Wildcats' primary scoring threat and force them into uncharacteristic perimeter mistakes.

The interior battle also favors the Blue Devils due to the presence of Maliq Brown, the reigning ACC Defensive Player of the Year. Brown’s ability to switch onto guards and eliminate second-chance opportunities will be vital in limiting Arizona's 7-2 center Motiejus Krivas. By taking away the easy interior putbacks that Arizona relies on, Duke forces their opponents to become a jump-shooting team—a gamble that rarely pays off against the Blue Devils' disciplined close-outs and length on the perimeter.

Finally, the deciding factor is the "Boozer-to-Boozer" connection. Cayden's chemistry with Cameron allows Duke to run a complex, high-low interior game that Arizona hasn't seen in the Big 12. This innate synergy, combined with the veteran shot-making of Caleb Foster (ed. note: Foster's return for Final Four is questionable) gives Duke a level of late-game poise that ensures they can execute under the brightest lights in Indianapolis.

-Gemini