Vanderbilt or McNeese? How to pick 5 vs. 12 matchup in 2026 March Madness bracket

The most dangerous matchup in a bracket is historically the 5 vs. 12 battle, representing interesting decisions across the board. McNeese is no stranger to that idea, coming off a 2025 NCAA Tournament where the Cowboys successfully upset Clemson as a No. 12 seed. This year, McNeese will try to do it again, albeit against a formidable opponent in Vanderbilt.

The Commodores return to March Madness for the second-straight season despite missing the previous six times, thanks to second-year coach Mark Byington. Vanderbilt is coming off an appearance in the SEC championship game and now has its sights on a deep run in March.

Here's what you need to know about this matchup.

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Vanderbilt vs. McNeese odds

Vanderbilt opens as a double-digit favorite over McNeese, which will have its work cut out in the first round. Here are the details of the game, including betting odds, time, TV, and venue, per DraftKings. 

• Odds: Vanderbilt -12.5
• Date: March 19, 2026
• Time: TBD
• TV: TBD
• Arena: Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

SN AWARDS: All-America team | Player of the Year | Coach of the Year

Vanderbilt (26-8, 11-7 in SEC)

Vanderbilt didn’t lose a game until mid-January this season and put together their best season in at least 18 years, depending on where their winning percentage ends up. The Commodores had a few slip ups in SEC play, which is no surprise when you look at the talent around the conference, but Mark Byington’s team held its own, winning at Tennessee and Auburn while beating Alabama, Kentucky, Texas A&M and Georgia at home before trouncing Florida in the SEC Tournament.

The Commodores simply do many things well. In a conference well-represented in the NCAA Tournament, Vanderbilt is top-five in field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, assists, steals and blocks. This team also commits the second-fewest turnovers of any team in the SEC. While not a lethal team from beyond the arc, Vanderbilt can space the floor with a handful of key players who shoot the ball well enough.

Tyler Tanner’s rise has helped the Commodores elevate themselves this season. The sophomore is averaging more than 19 points per game, shoots nearly 50 percent from the field and has a pair of 30-point games this year. Opposing defenses will have to fixate on Tanner, but Duke Miles, Tyler Nickel and AK Okereke are all experienced seniors who can score as well.

Vanderbilt isn’t loaded with size, though it hasn’t hurt too much defensively, with the Commodores holding opponents to fairly low marks both inside and outside the 3-point line. Devin McGlockton and Jalen Washington can rebound the ball, and Byington has five rotation players averaging better than a half-block per game.

Last year’s Vanderbilt team could score, but it ran into a defensive buzzsaw in St. Mary’s in the NCAA Tournament. When the two met again during Feast Week, the Commodores scored 96 and won by 25. Vanderbilt might not have the talent for a deep run, but it’s more balanced than it was a year ago and is loaded with experience around the sophomore Tanner. - Dan Treacy 

• NET ranking: 14th
• KenPom ranking: 12th
• Quad 1 record: 10-7
• Quad 2 record: 7-1
• Quad 3 record: 3-0
• Quad 4 record: 6-0
• Offensive efficiency ranking: 7th
• Defensive efficiency ranking: 30th

Key players

Tyler Tanner, G, So. (6-0, 170): 19.2 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 2.4 spg

Duke Miles, G, Sr. (6-2, 175): 16.4 ppg, 4.3 apg, 2.6 spg

Tyler Nickel, F, Sr. (6-7, 200): 13.3 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 39.1% 3-pt

Devin McGlockton, F, Sr. (6-7, 220): 9.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 1.3 apg

AK Okereke, F, Sr. (6-7, 220): 9.8 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.0 apg

McNeese (27-5, 19-3 in Southland)

Will Wade may be gone, but McNeese’s days as a Southland powerhouse aren’t over quite yet. The Cowboys spent much of conference play behind Stephen F. Austin but rolled to a win in the Southland title game to clinch their third consecutive NCAA Tournament bid.

McNeese pulled an upset against Clemson last season. While the talent level and depth might not be exactly the same, the metrics actually like this team quite a bit. The Cowboys beat two Atlantic 10 teams in non-conference play, and their only major blunder was a 41-point loss to Michigan. No one would expect McNeese to beat this Michigan team, but the margin was jarring.

The Cowboys once again have some high-major talent on their roster. Leading scorer Larry Johnson transferred down from Creighton after he redshirted his freshman season, while Garwey Dual spent time at Providence and Seton Hall. Javohn Garcia and DJ Richards were on last year’s team, so there is some continuity here.

McNeese averages an even 80 points per game but doesn’t excel from beyond the 3-point line. Richards, Garcia and Tyshawn Archie can all shoot effectively, but there is no dominant shooter on this team. The Cowboys don’t have a great deal of size, which shows up in some shaky rebounding marks, but their scorers still find ways to get to the basket; McNeese shoots close to 55 percent on 2-point shots.

The Cowboys allow the third-fewest shots per game from inside the 3-point line, so they are content to force teams to the outside, where opponents are shooting 32.6 percent from deep. That’s actually a better mark than McNeese itself, which shoots just 31.4 percent from beyond the arc as a team, but coach Bill Armstrong trusts his array of guards to find open shots. 

Last year’s McNeese team didn’t rely heavily on any particular player. This one puts some pressure on an inexperienced Johnson to carry the load offensively at times. Whether Johnson can attack and rise to the occasion against tougher defenses could go a long way toward determining whether another upset is possible. - Dan Treacy 

• NET ranking: 56th
• KenPom ranking: 68th
• Quad 1 record: 0-2
• Quad 2 record: 2-2
• Quad 3 record: 8-0
• Quad 4 record: 16-1
• Offensive efficiency ranking: 91st
• Defensive efficiency ranking: 47th

Key players

Larry Johnson, G, Fr. (6-4, 220): 17.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.4 apg

Javohn Garcia, G, Sr. (6-2, 183): 12.0 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 1.8 spg

Tyshawn Archie, G, Jr. (6-1, 175): 14.3 ppg, 2.9 apg, 37.4% 3-pt

DJ Richards, G, Sr. (6-5, 180): 8.3 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 35.5% 3-pt

Jerrell Colbert, C, Jr. (6-10, 216): 5.8 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 1.2 bpg

Vanderbilt vs. McNeese prediction

Vanderbilt may have cooled off since its scorching start to the season, but the Commodores are still dangerous, having just beaten Florida in the NCAA Tournament.

Still, Vanderbilt was one of the biggest losers of Selection Sunday, receiving a No. 5 seed when many analysts believed they should have had a better draw. That could also be bad news for McNeese, which faces perhaps the toughest No. 12 seed in the entire tournament.

McNeese did pull off an upset last year, defeating No. 5 Clemson in the first round, but this year's version of the team is a little different.

While McNeese was a March darling last year, this year's task is much taller, as Vanderbilt is hungry for some NCAA Tournament magic. Add in Tyler Tanner's explosiveness, and the Commodores should be able to hold off the upset scare.

History of 5 vs. 12 upsets in NCAA tournament

- Dan Treacy contributed to this report