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As the opening round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs nears completion, with several series already decided and others approaching their final games, projections for a deep playoff run are beginning to take shape.
Some teams, including the Philadelphia Flyers and Utah Mammoth, are facing increasingly difficult paths forward. At the same time, contenders like the Carolina Hurricanes and Colorado Avalanche have emerged near the top of odds boards to both reach the Final and capture the championship.
Moneypuck.com, a widely referenced statistics site, has once again drawn attention for its playoff probability model. The platform made headlines earlier in the season when it gave the Detroit Red Wings an 85 percent chance of reaching the post-season, only for a dramatic second-half collapse to derail those expectations. Now that the playoffs are underway, its updated projections offer fresh insight into which teams have the best chance to lift the Stanley Cup.
Carolina Hurricanes - 20.4% to win Stanley Cup
The Carolina Hurricanes made quick work of the Ottawa Senators, dispatching the Canadian club in a four-game sweep. They now turn their attention to the Philadelphia Flyers, who are coming off a hard-fought series win over the Pittsburgh Penguins that featured plenty of physical play and heightened tensions. At the same time, Carolina has benefited from extra rest for its core players.
That contrast could play a role in the upcoming series. The emotional edge carried over by Philadelphia may work in its favor, but it could also prove difficult to sustain, especially against a structured Hurricanes squad. Carolina effectively exposed Ottawa’s inexperience in the opening round and could do the same against a younger Flyers team, potentially clearing a path to another Conference Finals appearance.
If they advance, the Hurricanes could face either the Buffalo Sabres or the Montreal Canadiens, depending on the outcome of that tightly contested matchup, setting up another opportunity to capitalize on less playoff-tested opposition.
Colorado Avalanche - 18.2% to win Stanley Cup
It has been “Cup or bust” all season for the Colorado Avalanche, who backed up their Presidents’ Trophy expectations with a dominant first-round sweep of the Los Angeles Kings. Now they shift into a much tougher second-round matchup against either the Dallas Stars or the Minnesota Wild.
Looking ahead, a potential Conference Finals path could open up against less experienced opponents such as the Utah Mammoth or the Anaheim Ducks, should those teams advance. Another possible matchup would be the Vegas Golden Knights, a familiar opponent the Avalanche have handled well, winning four of their last five meetings.
There is also a scenario where they could meet the Edmonton Oilers, but with Edmonton currently trailing 3-2 in their series, that outcome appears unlikely. Even so, Colorado has had recent success in that matchup as well, taking three of the last four games between the two clubs.
Buffalo Sabres - 11.3% to win Stanley Cup
One of the standout stories of the season has been the Buffalo Sabres’ rise, who ended their 14-season playoff drought and now have the third-highest odds to win the Stanley Cup. However, the path ahead is anything but simple.
Their immediate challenge comes in a tightly contested matchup against either the Montreal Canadiens or the Tampa Bay Lightning, two teams that stayed close with Buffalo in the standings throughout the season. Even if they advance, a potential Conference Finals matchup could pit them against the experienced Carolina Hurricanes or another surprise contender in the Philadelphia Flyers.
Beyond that, a likely Western Conference powerhouse would await in the Stanley Cup Final. While the road is daunting, Buffalo has already shown flashes of brilliance this season, going on impressive runs and beating all types of opponents in its path. The key will be rediscovering that form at the right time and sustaining it through four grueling rounds.
Minnesota Wild - 9.4% to win Stanley Cup
With just one more win needed to advance to the second round, the team has a chance to close out the series on home ice in Game 6 against the Dallas Stars. If they finish the job, a demanding matchup with the Colorado Avalanche would likely follow, a major test that could define how far they can go in their pursuit of a deeper playoff run.
MORE: How The Minnesota Wild Exposed The Dallas Stars' Biggest Flaws
Montreal Canadiens - 5.9% to win Stanley Cup
The Habs are now just one win away from eliminating one of the biggest threats in the post-season, the Tampa Bay Lightning. If they can close out the series and carry the momentum from taking down a proven Stanley Cup contender, Montreal could find itself in a strong position moving forward.
Riding that confidence, the Canadiens would next face an inexperienced Buffalo Sabres squad making its first playoff appearance in over a decade. From there, a potential Conference Finals clash with the Carolina Hurricanes could await, along with a possible Stanley Cup Final showdown against whichever Western Conference team emerges.
MORE: Is Martin St-Louis Out-Coaching Jon Cooper So Far In The NHL Playoffs?
Philadelphia Flyers - 5.7% to win Stanley Cup
It is difficult to slow down a team that has discovered a new and unexpected weapon, and that has been the case for the Philadelphia Flyers with the emergence of Porter Martone. Inserted into the lineup late in the season, Martone has made an immediate impact and already recorded two goals and three points through the first six playoff games of his young career.
The 19-year-old Peterborough native has brought a spark to Philadelphia at a crucial time, adding another dimension to an already energized group. If the youngster can get hot, he may draw comparisons to past rookie breakout runs like Cam Ward with the Carolina Hurricanes in 2006 and Matt Murray with the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2016 and 2017, when unexpected young talent helped carry teams far beyond expectations and into championship success.
Tampa Bay Lightning - 3% to win Stanley Cup
Trailing 3-2 and heading back to Montreal presents a difficult challenge for the Tampa Bay Lightning, but few teams in the league are more experienced or battle-tested in high-pressure moments. With a core that has spent years competing at the highest level, Tampa Bay still has the ability to grind its way through adversity and extend its post-season run.
However, it’s worth noting that after a dominant stretch that included back-to-back championships, a potential series loss to the Montreal Canadiens would mark a fourth consecutive first-round exit for a franchise that once set the standard for excellence in the modern NHL era.
MORE: Has Brandon Hagel become the Lightning's most important forward as he ascends into NHL superstardom?
Anaheim Ducks - 3% to win Stanley Cup
After a strong regular season in which the Ducks spent long stretches atop the Pacific Division, the team enters the playoffs in uneven form after a difficult finish to the year. Even so, they have pushed the defending back-to-back Western Conference champions, the Edmonton Oilers, to the limit and now hold a 3-2 series lead as the matchup returns to California for Game 6, where Edmonton has yet to win.
Despite the late-season slide, Anaheim has already accomplished something significant by snapping a seven-year playoff drought and showing they can compete with elite opposition.
If the Ducks can close out the series, they could be poised for an even tougher path ahead with a likely matchup with the Golden Knights looming, a team Anaheim recently handled well with three straight wins in the regular season, and a potential Western Conference Finals showdown against either the Colorado Avalanche or the Minnesota Wild, both of whom would present a significant test.
Boston Bruins - 2.7% to win Stanley Cup
The Bruins have exceeded expectations in what was supposed to be a retooling season, yet they find themselves in a difficult opening-round series against the Buffalo Sabres. Boston has struggled to build momentum, with Buffalo has delivered some decisive wins, making a Bruins comeback with two wins to close out the series seem quite unlikely.
MORE: Bruins Use 'Neighbor Connection' To Spoil The Sabres' Party In Buffalo
Dallas Stars - 2.7% to win Stanley Cup
Traveling on the road for a must-win Game 6 is never an easy task, but the Stars have shown they are built for this kind of situation. Needing to win their final two games to advance, Dallas carries a track record of thriving in tight series, including an 18-13 record in best-of-seven matchups tied 2-2 and a strong 13-4 mark when holding home-ice advantage to start a series.
If there is a team worth backing in a comeback scenario, Dallas fits the profile. They have already proven their ability to rise to the moment, including a seven-game series win over the Colorado Avalanche in last year’s playoffs. With that history in mind, the Stars remain a team capable of shifting momentum quickly if they can extend the series.
Edmonton Oilers - 2.3% to win Stanley Cup
After needing a late-season surge just to reach the post-season, the Oilers have once again found themselves in playoff contention, but without a clear answer in goal and with a roster that looks less dominant than in their previous two Stanley Cup Final runs.
This time around, the Anaheim Ducks have managed to disrupt Edmonton’s biggest strength by limiting superstar Connor McDavid’s impact, holding him off the scoresheet in multiple games and forcing the Oilers to look elsewhere for offense. Without their usual offensive engine fully firing, Edmonton’s post-season momentum appears to be slipping, and their once-dangerous playoff run is now facing the real possibility of coming to an early end.
Utah Mammoth - 1.9% to win Stanley Cup
Like several teams in similar situations, the Utah Mammoth face the pressure of needing to win two straight games in order to advance. Meanwhile, the Vegas Golden Knights still have at least one more opportunity on home ice to close out the series, where their strong 36-22 all-time home record adds an extra layer of difficulty for Utah.
If the Mammoth can extend the series, the challenge would not ease up, as a likely second-round matchup with the Anaheim Ducks looms, a team that has given them trouble throughout the season.
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