How good will the Bulls be? Predictions for the 2026-27 season

The Bulls come into the 2026-27 season with a lot of unknowns. About half of their minutes will come from players who were not on last year's opening day roster. They'll be led by a new coach, a new front office, a new franchise rookie, and presumably changes in their offensive and defensive systems. 

That obviously leads to a lot of uncertainty around the team. But it's safe to say that they're not competing for a championship for a while. Stealing a line from former Lakers head coach Darvin Ham, this seems to be a year more about wisdom and lessons than wins and losses. New lead executive Bryson Graham hinted at as much during his introductory press conference. 

"It's going to take time," Bryson told reporters. "I think the roster, we're in the developmental stage right now. I think everyone in here knows that we are not where we want to be." 

In order to better predict records for the Bulls and the league as a whole, I took my first crack at building a public win projection model this summer. The model is fairly in line with Vegas win totals, with a few notable exceptions that I will write on later. Like my salary model, it uses DARKO to estimate how many wins each player will produce on a roster. It does have some blind spots, most notably that it doesn't account for chemistry or fit. But it gives a good ballpark of where teams should expect to land in the standings. 

Here's a walkthrough of what it says about the Bulls, along with my own subjective analysis. 

NBA POWER RANKINGS: Win projection model paints interesting picture

A brief history of patting myself on the back

I generally have a pretty good pulse on the Bulls. I've been doing predictions for them since the 2021-22 season, oftentimes going completely against national and local consensus. Aside from one very bad year in 2025, I'll put my record against anyone's. 

I've had four out of five correct predictions, three of which were against consensus, and two of which were exactly on the money. Let's see if I can do it again. 

My prediction for the 2026-27 Bulls

The early Vegas win total on the Bulls is sitting at 25.5. That's a great number, and almost exactly in line with the 25.2 wins that my model has them sitting on. I guess that means that I'm barely taking the under. I'll put them down for 25 wins. 

That win total will put Chicago right on the edge of the relegation zone, reserved for the teams with the three worst records at the end of the year. The Nets and Kings will probably be worse. After that, it's a crapshoot between the Wizards, Bucks, Mavericks, and Bulls.

Landing in the relegation zone shouldn't matter much for the Bulls given that the penalties for being at the bottom are not nearly as severe as the marketing around the new lottery odds would have you believe. Their average pick position drops by a little more than half a slot, from 7.4 to 8.0, if they fall into that bottom three.

Their placement within the bottom will ultimately depend on how heavily they lean on their veterans versus letting their younger guys play through mistakes. Josh Giddey, Norman Powell, Jalen Smith, Tre Jones, and Zach Collins are all winning players to varying degrees. Matas Buzelis should be one as well for the first time this season.

Young players generally take several seasons before they can claim that positive impact distinction. It takes a while before players understand the defensive positioning, physicality, and other dark arts that are required to win their minutes consistently. 

Of the players in last year's rookie class, Kon Knueppel immediately had an All-Star level impact, due mostly to his incredible shooting (which is why he was the clear Rookie of the Year to me). Cedric Coward, Collin Murray-Boyles, Dylan Harper, VJ Edgecombe, and Cooper Flagg were solid rotation players. Every other rookie was a negative, some to huge degrees. 

Caleb Wilson will have some brilliant highlights, but Summer League showed that he will probably have break-even or slightly positive impact during his minutes, similar to what Dylan Harper or Cooper Flagg did last regular season. Dailyn Swain will be a negative. It's unclear if Noa Essengue or Rob Dillingham will even be in the rotation, but both also project as negative impact players. 

Norman Powell and Josh Giddey will keep the Bulls somewhat respectable, but the Bulls don't have the veteran depth to win a ton of games.

How my prediction can be too low

My model is lower than consensus on Giddey and Powell, rating them as average starters. If both can bring their impact level to fringe All-Star territory (reasonable given that Powell was an All-Star last season and Giddey had some early-season buzz), then that would tack on another four wins to the season total, getting the Bulls to 29 or 30 wins. 

Buzelis also doesn't rate as well in the model as Bulls fans might think, coming in at a below-average starter level. If he made that same All-Star leap, then that would add another four wins, bringing the Bulls up to 33 or 34 wins. 

Let's say Caleb Wilson matches Kon Knueppel's rookie season, contributing an immediate All-Star impact. That's another three to four wins tacked onto the Bulls' total, putting them in Play-In territory of 37 or 38 wins. 

Then there's some much lower-hanging fruit which could make a substantial difference. Nic Claxton hasn't been a positive-impact player over the last two years. If he experiences the renaissance that the Bulls are hoping, going from one of the worst starters in the league to the top 10 center trajectory he was on before his back issues, then that could add up to five wins.

Alternatively, if Tiago Splitter figures out quickly that Jalen Smith is the better player of the two both in terms of talent and fit with the rest of the starters, then that could boost the Bulls' total by about two wins. 

If all of those perfect conditions hit, then Chicago is looking at a Hornets-like dream season where they finish a handful of wins above .500. 

MORE: Why Caleb Wilson was the right pick for the Bulls

How my prediction can be too high

I have Giddey and Powell penciled in for around 70 games. Powell's contract was designed to be traded, and he could be off the team by the All-Star break. Giddey has averaged 67 games for his career, and he also might be off the team given that he wasn't acquired by this front office. 

Tre Jones can fill in for Giddey, but if Powell misses time due to injury or trade, then the Bulls are going to be in deep trouble. They are not a particularly well-fitting roster. Powell is the guy that holds it together due to his advantage creation and shooting. 

The Bulls are also very unproven at forward aside from Buzelis and Wilson. If Swain's combine and Summer League struggles are real, then that leaves promising but raw prospect Leonard Miller, Patrick Williams (gulp) and Noa Essengue (big gulp) as the primary backups. That projects as the weakest forward bench in the league by a fairly large margin. 

These pieces are weird fits with each other, and lead executive Bryson Graham has given coach Tiago Splitter the same lack of shooting that threw a wrench in his offense last year in Portland. 

There is a scenario where Powell and Giddey get moved, Wilson is just so-so, and the Bulls don't get any other breakout performances.

Even in that worst-case scenario, it's hard to see the Bulls being one of the bottom-two teams in the league. Ownership has expressed strong disdain for losses even in rebuilding years, and there are other teams like the Nets who don't control their draft pick and don't care about being in the relegation zone. 

The Bulls are going to try to at least be somewhat respectable. They don't have the firepower to keep up with the best teams, but they showed before the trade deadline last year that they can play hard and steal some games with young legs. Getting above 25 wins, proving a bearish nerd analyst wrong, and seeing flashes of greatness from Caleb Wilson should constitute a successful season.