Padres' odds to trade Mason Miller revealed by ESPN are higher than expected

The San Diego Padres and A.J. Preller are always a team to watch at the MLB trade deadline, and this summer's deadline of August 3 is no different.

However, unlike their plan last season, which involved adding a ton of talent, the Padres might end up selling a bit this summer to try to improve their odds both in 2026 and beyond.

One way they could do so is by trading Mason Miller. Speaking of which, ESPN's Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel revealed the odds of a trade, which were higher than expected.

Mason Miller's trade odds are higher than expected for Padres per ESPN

"4. Mason Miller, RHP, San Diego Padres. Chance of being traded: 40%," Passan and McDaniel projected.

San Diego's closer has been awesome this season and has looked like a phenomenal trade pickup at last season's trade deadline.

But, one year later, the Padres are reportedly "considering moving him," according to Passan and McDaniel.

It will cost a fortune to acquire Miller at the deadline, but the Padres, sitting at 49-51, 13.5 games back in the NL West and 2.5 back in the NL Wild Card, might end up trading Miller this summer.

MORE: MLB execs believe Padres will trade Mason Miller at trade deadline

During his 2026 season so far, Miller has a ridiculous 0.89 ERA with 2.3 bWAR and 25 saves in 39 appearances with 75 strikeouts in 40.2 innings pitched.

The two-time All-Star is under club control through the 2029 season and is the best closer who could be moved this year.

While there's a bit more nuance to a potential Miller trade, ESPN's projection, giving the Padres a 40% chance of trading Miller, is unexpectedly high.

Other players have a much lower chance of being traded, but the Padres 40% chance of dealing Miller, while lower odds than a coin flip, is still pretty high. That's higher than expected, as Miller seems to have a real chance of being dealt this summer.

More MLB news:

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• Nick Pivetta has to return from IL by August 22 to avoid missing out on $32 million contract with Padres
• Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani injury update essentially ends Cy Young chances
• Yankees send scouts to Cubs vs. Twins series amid trade interest in three players
• Phillies ‘would love’ to trade for Mets reliever Luke Weaver