US missile stockpile likely unable to handle prolonged war as Iran adapts to defenses: experts

The US likely does not have enough munitions to sustain a prolonged all-out war with Iran — which is already adapting to bypass America’s defense systems in its attacks across the region, an expert told The Post.

While the Trump administration is reportedly considering a “wider war” against Iran, the US’s ability to engage in such a campaign could be undermined by America’s shrinking stockpiles of air defense and long-range missiles, according to Katherine Thompson, a senior fellow in defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute.

“Time is the main factor here. If this goes on for weeks and then we settle into a cease-fire, it could be fine,” she said.

“But I don’t think our munitions are in a great place if this lasts another year or two.”

Saturday’s deadly strike by Tehran that killed two US soldiers underscored America’s already existing logistical challenges in protecting its roungly 50,000 troops stationed in the region, the expert said.

“The attacks make it clear that the size of our presence in the Middle East has become more of a liability … and it shows the effect on our stockpiles used to protect that presence, as retaliatory attacks are still coming at an alarming rate,” she said.

Analysts have warned for months that the US has already burned through its stockpile of interceptor and attack missiles during its war with Iran and through military aid provided to Ukraine in previous years.

Before the Iranian ar reignited this month, the US had already used up more than 3,000 Tomahawk, Patriot and JASSM missiles against Iran, according to the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.

The US has also burned through hundreds of its other advanced weapons, including the THAAD system, with much of America’s inventory not expected to return to pre-war levels until the end of the decade, according to the CSIS.

Thompson noted that the bulk of the US missiles used so far in the Iran war were launched during the first six days of Operation Epic Fury, with the Trump administration initially confident that it had degraded Iran’s missile systems to the point that America’s minimized stockpiles could handle retaliatory attacks.

“But as it turns out, Iran still has access to its missiles and drones,” she said. “[Iran’s] retaliatory attacks won’t be as big as [Tehran’s response] was during those initial days of the war, but they’ve shown the ability to keep attacking.”

But US defense officials maintain that American is well-armed and ready to meet the demands of a prolonged war.

“We have executed multiple successful operations across combatant commands while ensuring the U.S. military possesses a deep arsenal of capabilities to protect our people and our interests.” Chief Pentagon Spokesman Sean Parnell said in a statement.

A Pentagon official added to The Post, “The Department of War is committed to rapidly expanding the defense industrial base by leveraging all available commercial solutions and technologies to ensure our warfighters maintain a decisive advantage.

“The department is aggressively pursuing and integrating the best of American innovation, wherever it resides, to deliver production at scale and drive resiliency across supply chains.”

While the CSIS estimated that the US likely has enough munitions for the war with Iran, it warned that vulnerabilities would be inevitable in a wider conflict, such as if war were to break out with China over such issues as Taiwan.

Those vulnerabilities may already be at play should the US choose to expand the war in Iran, said a US official familiar with the plans to The Washington Post.

“We do not have enough to safely sustain operations, and I don’t think the White House is aware of that,” the official said.

The dangers of the depleted supplies were made evident when the Pentagon opted to shift a number of troops away from Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, which have come under constant fire by Iran and limited Washington’s ability to station its forces and aircraft in those countries.

The US troops were moved to Jordan, which should have been relatively more secure and open to US operations, American officials told the New York Times.

But the move made Jordan a prime target for a flurry of Iranian attacks over the past week that killed two US service members and left about two dozen more injured.

At least three missiles were able to circumvent US defenses at the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, with one ballistic missile hitting the housing unit where the slain troops were stationed, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The deadly attack demonstrated that Iran still has access to ample and relatively cheaper missiles and drones, which are now able to better evade America’s air defense systems, the US officials told the Times.

After the deadly attack over the weekend, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned Jordan to kick out America’s forces in the kingdom or continue to face consequences.

A total of 17 American service members have been killed since the launch of Operation Epic Fury by the US and Israel against Iran on Feb. 28.

The US has now carried out a ninth consecutive night of airstrikes against Iran in retaliation for the killings, with President Trump insisting that Tehran’s military force was battered and that it does not control the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite the escalating hostilities, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei each said that their respective nations remain open to negotiating an end to the conflict.