How Alabama’s loss to Oklahoma shakes up the College Football Playoff picture

Alabama’s first home loss under coach Kalen DeBoer didn’t just stun a packed Bryant–Denny Stadium on Saturday. It also sent a tremor through the College Football Playoff race. 

The fourth-ranked Crimson Tide’s 23-21 defeat to No. 11 Oklahoma reopened doors for the Sooners while creating a must-win scenario in Tuscaloosa with two weeks remaining.

For Oklahoma, the team once left for dead after a second loss and facing a daunting November has risen from the ashes. The win serves as a boost at the right time. 

Coming off consecutive road victories over SEC opponents, the Sooners (8-2) now find themselves in firm contention for the 12-team playoff. According to ESPN's College Football Power Index, Oklahoma’s chances are now at 23% with the victory. Had the Sooners lost, those odd would be near zero.

Oklahoma still needs to finish 10-2, which requires wins over Missouri and LSU. But both SEC opponents have dealt with respective hardships recently. LSU fired Brian Kelly and still can't get it down 100 percent. Mizzou has a freshman QB who is still learning the speed of the game. 

Road wins over Tennessee and Alabama put the Sooners with a Playoff framework. The committee could have reason to elevate OU above Alabama in its next set of rankings given identical records and a decisive head-to-head result. 

Where does the Tide go from here?

Alabama (8-2) remains in the mix but no longer controls its postseason destiny. The Tide’s playoff chances fell to 95.7% after Saturday’s loss, and even that is generous. The path forward is far more precarious.

Alabama must beat Auburn in the Iron Bowl to stay alive, but even that doesn’t guarantee a berth in the SEC Championship Game. A three-way tie scenario with Georgia and Ole Miss could leave the Tide on the outside due to inferior opponent winning percentages.

Avoiding a third loss is crucial. At 9-3, Alabama would face a steep climb for an at-large bid, even with four ranked wins. But a 10-2 Tide squad, especially one that reaches and wins the SEC title game, would remain firmly in contention for a top-four seed and a first-round bye.

Ultimately, the mission for both teams is unchanged. If you win, you're in. Saturday’s upset merely reshaped the stakes and elevated Oklahoma from longshot to contender. But reminded Alabama that even one misstep can carry altering consequences. 

If the Tide doesn't lose the opener to Florida State, this conversation goes in a different direction. However, a two-loss Alabama team might get left behind. 

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