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As February draws near, the 2025-26 high school girls basketball season is past its halfway point in almost every state.
In many seasons, late January is too early to have a meaningful discussion of the national title race.
But not this season. The 2025-26 season has seen a particularly small handful of can't-miss national title contenders establish themselves with a fairly clear pecking order and gain separation from everyone else since the get-go. And there haven't been many major shakeups among that group since it distinguished itself.
Here's a quick rundown on how we see the national championship race based on SN's national girls basketball rankings with the postseason drawing near in many key states.
(Rankings refer to SN's national girls basketball rankings for the week of Jan. 26.)
Bishop McNamara is alone in the driver's seat following Hoophall Classic
So much can change in the next two-plus months, but there's a serious chance that No. 1 Bishop McNamara's 57-55 win over No. 2 Ontario Christian was a clear-cut national championship game, which you don't often see during the regular season if at all.
The Mustangs put together arguably the hardest schedule in the country and it has paid off. Look no further than the fact that they're sitting on top after starting 1-2. One of the losses was against Long Island Lutheran, which they avenged at Nike TOC in the championship. The other loss was against St. Frances Academy, which was not able to back that monster win up with consistent dominance, but Bishop McNamara needed less than two months to walked down many the nation's other top contenders.
Through 18 games the Mustangs have wins over No. 2 Ontario Christian, No. 5 LuHi, No. 6 Archbishop Mitty, and more ranked or otherwise nationally prominent names such as Bishop Gorman, Friends' Central, Albertus Magnus, San Ramon Valley, Monsignor Scanlan, and Bishop Ireton. Those wins not only constitute an excellent resume but also give Bishop McNamara transitive advantages over several other national contenders that have fallen to the aforementioned teams that Bishop McNamara beat.
To top it off, recent history tells us that Bishop McNamara will likely get a chance for revenge over St. Frances Academy in the state playoffs. It stomped the Panthers 86-32 in the Maryland private school finals last March after St. Frances Academy upset Bullis in the semifinals.
Due to its two losses, however long ago they were, Bishop McNamara's case is not ironclad. It's hard to imagine anyone overtaking the Mustangs through the rest of their federation-sanctioned season if they win out from here. But national postseason tournaments The Throne and Chipotle Nationals – plus any potential newcomers – make matters much less simple than the Mustangs running away with a natty if they don't lose another game.
Ontario Christian and DME Academy couldn't be closer behind
Just how close behind Bishop McNamara is No. 2 Ontario Christian?
The Knights led by seven points late in their meeting with Bishop McNamara and would be the runaway No. 1 team in the nation – with the national title nearly locked up for California – if they hung on. Instead, they might need to be perfect besides that one loss just to give themselves a chance at a national championship.
But with the CIF playoffs approaching, Ontario Christian already knows it has to be perfect to achieve its goals, natty or not. Bishop McNamara has already gone to overtime twice against unranked teams in January alone and knows the stakes of every single game. That constitutes severe pressure. Qandace Samuels and company could, for example, lose to St. John's on Saturday and still go on to win the WCAL and a state title. Heck, they'd still have a real chance at a national title if that happened. But they'd then join the group of teams needing others in different parts of the country to lose instead of remaining in a pack of one.
At 18-0, No. 3 DME Academy is a major threat to run the table throughout the Grind Session and its other list of big non-conference games, and it's currently in line for the No. 1 ranking if Bishop McNamara and Ontario Christian go down. While DME prepared a very tough schedule in its own right and has won 16 of 18 games by 20 points or more, its strength of schedule is lower than expected for no fault of its own as many of its top foes haven't been as good as expected this season. DME has done its part by not only winning but utterly dominating almost every night, including against its strongest opponents. It's yet to be determined exactly how well an undefeated run for them would stack up to the other teams we're about to discuss.
Princess Anne rounds out top tier of title threats
No. 4 Princess Anne is in a similar boat to DME Academy. The Cavaliers are undefeated with their closest win coming by a score of 70-57 over No. 21 Bullis. They also smoked St. Frances Academy 82-54, and while St. Frances is barely hanging on to its ranking in the bubble, that lopsided win gives them a transitive head-to-head advantage over No. 1 Bishop McNamara. For that reason, if someone wanted to put Princess Anne No. 1 in the country until they lose a game, we wouldn't argue.
Unfortunately for Princess Anne, there's only so much worthy competition it's going to see in Virginia without playing a travel schedule that few public schools are able to pull off. Those wins against Bullis and St. Frances were monumental for anchoring the Cavaliers near the top of the rankings, but the Cavaliers still have the weakest overall strength of schedule of nearly anybody in our national rankings.
But Princess Anne still has a serious shot at a national title. Last year they made it to The Throne and very nearly took down Sidwell Friends. If Princess Anne runs the table emphatically through a state title and then wins a national tournament against other legitimate national contenders, it'd be time to take a hard look at putting Princess Anne at No. 1 to end the season.
Usual suspects from California are still in the mix
As we've said many times, whoever wins the state playoffs (and even the CIF-Southern Section playoffs) at the Open Division level finishes with a stronger list of marquee wins than so many of the best teams in the country have the opportunity to even come close to. Four-time defending NorCal champion No. 6 Archbishop Mitty, three-time reigning state champion and two-time reigning national champion No. 10 Etiwanda, and No. 7 Sierra Canyon all saw their national title chances took a massive hit when Ontario Christian fell to Bishop McNamara. But as legitimate threats to win California (and for Etiwanda and Sierra Canyon, the Southern Section as well), they are still can't-miss national title contenders.
Archbishop Mitty nearly beat Bishop McNamara at Nike TOC even before McKenna Woliczko returned from injury, and if it had beaten Ontario Christian earlier this month instead of blowing a double-digit lead, it'd be No. 2 in the country with a few viable inroads to a No. 1 finish.
Sierra Canyon's national title chances are reeling after a 70-60 loss to No. 5 Long Island Lutheran at Hoophall Classic, but there's a real chance the Trailblazers sweep Southern Section and state titles, and who knows what could happen at that point. Remember, 5-star senior Jerzy Robinson (South Carolina) had not yet made her season debut due to an ankle injury when Sierra Canyon lost 67-63 to JSerra in its fourth game of the season.
Etiwanda is ranked lowest of those three but is unbeaten since star transfers Tess Oldenburg and Jaylee Moore became eligible on Dec. 26. Like we said about Sierra Canyon, Etiwanda is a serious threat to sweep Southern Section and state Open Division titles and is thus a real national title contender even without an incredible regular season resume.
Long Island Lutheran and Incarnate Word Academy remain in the picture
It'd now take a perfect storm of circumstances for No. 5 Long Island Lutheran and No. 8 Incarnate Word to even have a real chance at a national title, but they can't be ruled out if they win out from here.
LuHi's three losses came Bishop McNamara, Ontario Christian, and Incarnate Word, and we doubt there are many other teams in high school girls basketball that could beat them. Those three losses make it very tough to see the Crusaders finish ranked No. 1, but their list of wins – Bishop McNamara, St. John's, Bullis, Red Bank Catholic, Morris Catholic, Staley, Sierra Canyon, IMG Academy, and other prominent teams – speaks for itself.
Despite having a head-to-head advantage over Long Island Lutheran, IWA is three spots lower right now because of its loss to Sierra Canyon, which lost to Long Island Lutheran, which overall has a stronger body of work than the Red Knights do. With its only losses coming against Ontario Christian and Sierra Canyon, it's not impossible that IWA ends up at No. 1.
More undefeated teams and familiar faces remain in play
It's getting pretty difficult to see a potential national title for a team outside of the aforementioned nine, but it's far from impossible. No. 9 Johnston, No. 13, SPIRE Academy National, No. 16 Austin Westlake, No. 18 Wagner, No. 22 Arrowhead, and No. 23 Belleville are all undefeated with wins over at least one nationally relevant opponent, and most or all of them have more big-name foes left on the docket when you factor in the postseason.
No. 11 Westtown could be in play at 16-1 with an unranked loss coming to FB Cresset but wins over The St. James Performance Academy, Bullis, and IMG Academy plus an upcoming crack at DME Academy.
No. 12 Legion Prep (11-2) lost only to Royal Crown of Canada and DME Academy, and both of those losses were in November. Legion Prep deals with a litany of unranked heavyweights in the Grind Session and has also beaten The St. James Performance Academy.
The X-factor: National postseason tournaments
At the end of the day, there's not quite enough public information available to get too deep into the weeds, because even if the pecking order doesn't change much through state finals, national postseason tournaments are where the last three nation championships were more or less decided.
That might make us sound like a broken record, but it's the fact of the matter. Yes, it would make life easier for most involved if the statuses of the Chipotle Nationals, The Throne, and any possible newcomers were public knowledge down the stretch of the regular season and federation postseasons. But the way that the workings of these tournaments has transpired in recent years keeps an air of mystique and open-ended possibility alive for the national title race that wouldn't otherwise be there, especially in a season where there's such a clear pecking order around the top of the rankings. Even more so when it's never clear which states will provide participants in any given year due to federation rules, loopholes therein, and logistical factors. The basketball world still might not have a clue who'll get to control their destiny in the national title hunt six weeks from now, but we will enjoy the chaos as always.
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