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Every so often, a safety runs so far away from his peers that he transcends positional boundaries. We know that safeties aren't supposed to go in the top 10. Positional value is the dominant theory in NFL war rooms, putting a limit on how high teams are willing to take even the best prospects the position has to offer.
Baltimore Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton had to wait until the 14th pick in 2022. Four years prior, Minkah Fitzpatrick -- perhaps the preeminent defensive back of Nick Saban's Alabama tenure -- couldn't crack the top 10 in 2018.
In a weak 2026 class, Downs is threatening to be the first top-10 selection at safety since Jamal Adams in 2017. As teams weigh a non-primary position against less proven prospects across the fields, it's worth considering just how high Downs can go in April.
Best fits for Caleb Downs
New York Giants, No. 5 pick
No spot in the top 10 is as seamless as the New York Giants. Lines can be drawn about head coach John Harbaugh and the Hamilton selection four seasons ago, and there's plenty of room for high-level talent in the back seven of this defense.
Neither Tyler Nubin nor Jevon Holland played up to the expectations of their draft capital and contract, respectively. The Giants can't afford to render Holland a non-factor at free safety. Adding Downs would lighten Nubin's load and take pressure off of Holland as a ballhawk. He adds a layer of versatility that the safety duo lacked in 2025, and without the temptation of taking an edge rusher, Downs will likely be the best player available.
Cincinnati Bengals, No. 10 pick
It comes as no surprise that the Cincinnati Bengals are likely to pick a defensive player with their first-round pick. Uncompetitive performances from Cincinnati's defense have joined Joe Burrow's injuries as the biggest reasons for the Bengals' lack of success since appearing in the Super Bowl.
In all likelihood, it will take more than Downs to change Cincinnati's fortunes. The Bengals are facing uncertainty at edge rusher, and the second level of the defense is football's equivalent to a nuclear wasteland.
Adding Downs would help sure up the run defense while improving upon one of the league's weakest safety duos. In the box, Downs' willingness to get his hands dirty raises the floor of the unit. If he can create a few more turnovers in the process, Cincinnati could give its elite offense more breathing room. After so many heartbreaks in recent years, that could be enough to play meaningful January football.
Miami Dolphins, No. 11 pick
The Miami Dolphins didn't hire Jeff Hafley to be competitive in Year 1. They hired him to build a program and make sure the defense is ready to compete by the time a franchise quarterback finds himself in South Beach.
A Downs selection would give Miami options. The Dolphins can pair him with the aforementioned Fitzpatrick to create one of the league's best safety duos, or they can trade him and make Downs the face of the next good Miami defense.
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In the former, Miami would have a versatile secondary headlined by two of the most instinct-driven defensive backs in the sport. A defensive spine of Kenneth Grant, Jordyn Brooks, and Downs is the kind of foundation Hafley's regime can build upon with confidence in its long-term viability.
Dallas Cowboys, No. 12 pick
The Dallas Cowboys love nothing more than making a splash, and aside from running back Jeremiyah Love, no realistic first-round pick would cause such a stir. Downs has national notoriety from his stops at Alabama and Ohio State. He's long been in the draft spotlight, has the positional value questions surrounding his name, and might not post the interception marks necessary to be an obvious star on Sundays.
It's the perfect storm circling Jerry World.
Regardless of the optics, Dallas has serious needs at safety and an extra first-round pick to play with. Paired with an early-round edge rusher, the Cowboys could quickly build a core capable of overcoming weaknesses at corner and linebacker. Doing so with one of the highest-floor players in the class would insulate a defense that just needs to be average to make the playoffs.
Los Angeles Rams, No. 13 pick
The Los Angeles Rams are defined by their stars. It felt like Davante Adams and Puka Nacua saw the entirety of Los Angeles' target share on the way to a deep playoff run. On the other side of the ball, though, the Rams are a bit more balanced.
Edge rusher Jared Verse is a star, but the Rams lack potency in the secondary. As a handful of defensive backs approach free agency, Los Angeles can afford to make a luxury selection, adding a blue-chip prospect who can help change the math against the dynamic offenses atop the division.
Downs landing in Los Angeles would be the type of disaster scenario opponents foresaw when the Rams traded for this pick in April. Teams like this aren't supposed to find field-tilting players, and that might be enough for Les Snead to pull the trigger, regardless of positional value.
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