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The Dallas Cowboys won't be winning the NFC East in the 2025 regular season. But after their Week 11 Monday night win, they are still alive in conference wild-card race.
The Cowboys improved to 4-5-1 by beating the Raiders 33-16 in Las Vegas. That still has them 3.5 games behind the reigning division champion Eagles, who are tied for the NFC's best record at 8-2.
With Dallas and Philadelphia each having only seven more games in the final two weeks, that lead is too big to overcome. The Cowboys' only true path to returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2023 is rallying for a wild-card berth.
Let's break down Dallas' long shot for the postseason:
MORE: Dak Prescott throws four touchdowns in blowout win over Raiders
Cowboys' playoff picture
The Cowboys moved up to No. 10 in the conference, a half-game ahead of the No. 11 Vikings (4-6) and one game behind the No. 9 Panthers (6-5).
Dallas is 2.5 games behind the third and final NFC wild-card spot, occupied by No. 7 San Francisco (7-4). It's a significant lead, too, but that's still not as impossible as making up the division deficit.
Cowboys' remaining schedule
- Week 12: vs. Eagles
- Week 13: vs Chiefs
- Week 14: at Lions
- Week 15: vs. Vikings
- Week 16: vs. Chargers
- Week 17: at Commanders
- Week 18: at Giants
The next five games will mean everything for Dallas. Between Philadelphia, Kansas City, Detroit and Los Angeles, the opponents are all strong. Minnesota will be tough at home, too. Although the easiest games are last against Washington and New York to finish division play, being on the road makes them a little trickier.
The schedule hasn't done the Cowboys any favors before Week 12 and there's little respite afterward. They will need to play well just to go 4-3, but it's more like need to get super-hot and finish 5-2 or better to have a chance.
MORE WEEK 11 NEWS:
- Updated NFL playoff picture after Week 11 results
- How wins by Bears, Packers impacts NFC North standings
- Complete NFL Draft order after Week 11 results
Cowboys' playoff chances
The Cowboys have the odds stacked against them. They need to maintain that high level of all-around play in the Raiders romp against much tougher competition with almost no margin for error.
The 49ers and the No. 5 Seahawks (7-3) are bound to get to 10 wins. The No. 6 Packers (6-3-1), whom the Cowboys tied, in Week 4 should be the target, while also keeping an eye on the No. 8 Lions (6-4).
Dallas needs Green Bay to fade to make up the two games and Detroit to surge to either win the NFC North or finish second to Chicago (7-3). The Cowboys did lose to the Panthers in Week 6, losing a key tiebreaker there.
Getting to 9-7-1 means going 5-2 vs. that schedule. That would be asking for the Packers to have a rough 3-4 finish. Going 6-1 down the stretch would give the Cowboys a more reasonable chance, but that kind of hot streak seems unreasonable given their inconsistency.
Dallas just needs to focus on Philadelphia and treat every remaining game like a playoff one. Unfortunately, elimination from contention feels as inevitable as it was after losing to the Broncos and Cardinals back to back before the Week 10 bye.
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