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Quarterbacks good enough to be the first pick in the NFL Draft are good enough to earn multiple chances. They're good enough to get coaches fired, to turn a fanbase against a front office, to be the beneficiary of every excuse in the book.
Halfway through his rookie season, Tennessee Titans quarterback Cam Ward is already on his second head coach. Fair or not -- his fault or not -- he's producing like the worst quarterback in football, putting Tennessee back in the conversation for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
The chances that the Titans have a new starter in 2026 are slim. But the longer he struggles, the closer Tennessee comes to entertaining the idea that its optimism is a matter of sunk cost.
Ward's struggles place him in familiar top-pick territory
Ward isn't the first No. 1 pick to struggle as a rookie. He won't be the last. And while his issues aren't unprecedented, it's worth acknowledging that early-career success is a fairly strong indicator of what's to come.
In recent years, the top-drafted passer has quickly lost ground to his counterparts. Caleb Williams' story is still being written, but few would take him over Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye in a hypothetical redraft. Even after regressing, C.J. Stroud looks to have a brighter future than Bryce Young. Fellow 2025 rookie Jaxson Dart is flawed and inconsistent, but after winning Offensive Rookie of the Month for October, he seems to have a head start over Ward.
I'm not closing the book on Ward. His out-of-structure flashes are tantalizing, and he's clearly talented enough to make high-difficulty throws to elevate an offense and give it a greater margin for error. In this regard, he isn't the aforementioned Young, who may simply be too small to start in the NFL.
Still, he's on a similar path to Young and other historically bad rookie seasons.
| Name | Rookie Year EPA/Play | 2025 EPA/Play |
| Cam Ward | -0.21 | -0.21 |
| Bryce Young | -0.19 | -0.02 |
| Trevor Lawrence | -0.06 | 0.02 |
| Jared Goff | -0.35 | 0.23 |
It took Sean McVay's prowess to get Goff back on track, but in the years since, he has emerged as a good-but-not-great passer, destined to fall short against the game's most dynamic quarterbacks. He's a success story, but winning the Super Bowl is difficult for the best quarterbacks in football, and nobody is mistaking him for that. Despite the hype, Trevor Lawrence is yet to exceed expectations in his own right. He's on his third non-interim head coach. Young has flashed, but he's closer to being replaced than being extended.
Perhaps it's not fair to have this conversation without pointing to Josh Allen's 99th-percentile development into a dual-threat demigod. I'd argue he's the exception that proves the rule.
Subsequently, the Titans have a conundrum waiting for them in the offseason. There's a real chance Tennessee ends up with the No. 1 pick, a testament to Ward's struggles and a complete failure to provide him with a quality supporting cast. History would suggest that the Titans will hire one of the hotter quarterback gurus on the market, hoping to rekindle McVay's magic.
What happens if a new head coach prefers Ty Simpson or Fernando Mendoza to the damaged goods of Ward's rookie season? It would be poor process to not entertain the discussion, although Tennessee's next head coach will likely be tied to Ward's development, for better or worse.
MORE: Ty Simpson 2026 NFL Draft scouting report puts class's biggest riser under the microscope
One doesn't have to look far to see how quickly a coach can make an impact. Life is good in Chicago, even as Williams hits turbulence under Ben Johnson's tutelage. Maye is blossoming with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and veterans Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold were given new life by offensive masterminds. Ward could very well be next. To his credit, he's dutifully fulfilled the role of franchise quarterback off the field; the intangibles aren't an issue.
However, Ward's prospect profile doesn't help his case, either. By consensus and pedigree, Ward is pretty easily the worst quarterback prospect to go first overall in some time. Wide Left's consensus board had him at No. 7, behind a running back (Ashton Jeanty), a tight end (Tyler Warren), and an offensive tackle with red-flag measurables (Will Campbell). For transparency's sake, Ward was my QB1 but carried a second-round grade.
He isn't playing to either grade through eight games. Granted, the Titans are clearly one of the worst rosters in football, with a bad coaching staff and unstable ownership to boot. It isn't entirely his fault that he's this far behind the eight ball.
There's a path back to competence. It will likely take an awesome hire and an injection of talent both up front and on the perimeter. And yet, even a right-tailed outcome could land him well short of a slam-dunk franchise quarterback. After a half-season, Ward is fighting not just adversity, but historical precedence. The Titans' long-term future could hinge upon their honesty approaching that issue.
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