Bengals' double-digit projected win total gets unexpected 'too low' verdict

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) throws a pass in the fourth quarter of the NFL Week 18 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns at Paycor Stadium in Downtown Cincinnati on Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026. The Browns kicked a last second field goal to win 20-18. © Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Cincinnati Bengals, heading into the 2026 regular season, are hoping the revamped defense can help Joe Burrow and the still-potent offense have a big season.

It's seemingly a wide-open AFC North, with only the Baltimore Ravens as their real competition; the Cleveland Browns are more likely to land the No. 1 pick than a playoff spot, and the Pittsburgh Steelers are likely to be middle of the pack.

Recently, the Bengals got a lofty, double-digit projected win total from The Athletic. That would already be an exciting sign for the season, but Paul Dehner Jr. of The Athletic called that already lofty win total "too low" for a good reason.

Bengals projected win total, despite being above 10, is 'too low'

"Projected wins: 10.3. Verdict: Too low," Dehner writes. "The Bengals are currently favored in 15 of 17 games. In the last 16 games Joe Burrow started as a favorite, the Bengals are 13-3."

A 10.3 projected win total isn't bad at all for the Bengals, as it'd likely be good enough to make it to the playoffs. But Dehner believes it should be higher.

His provided reasons are straightforward: the Bengals are the favorites in 15 of their 17 games this upcoming season, and Burrow has a great record in such favorable matchups.

They begin the season against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Houston Texans, Steelers, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Miami Dolphins. All but the Texans game should be games where the revamped Bengals roster is favored.

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They play the Ravens and Browns twice after their Week 6 bye, along with one more matchup against the Steelers and games against the Tennessee Titans, Atlanta Falcons, Washington Commanders, New Orleans Saints, Kansas City Chiefs, Carolina Panthers, and Indianapolis Colts.

The two Ravens games and the Chiefs matchup will be difficult, but over the course of a 17-game season, there really are just four games that are a little bit more concerning than others.

This is a solid schedule for the Bengals, and Dehner believes Burrow and the rest of the team should be able to win more than 10.3 games this upcoming season.

It's a bold stance, but considering the upside of this offense and defense, it wouldn't be a total shocker if the Bengals wound up winning 11 or more games in 2026.

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