The New England Patriots may be the top team over the course of NFL history, but one thing they have never done is win in Denver in the postseason. For the Broncos to extend that, they will have to come up with their most difficult win over the Patriots in the playoffs to date.
The Patriots are favored in this game, though the line has gone from +5.5 points to +3.5 points, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The Broncos are underdogs in this game due solely ti the fact that they will have to start their backup quarterback.
With Bo Nix out for the season after breaking a bone in his ankle, Jarrett Stidham will be making just his fifth career start.
While this gives the Patriots a perceived advantage, it also gives Sean Payton an advantage, as no one has any recent film on Stidham. It is an intriguing matchup for several reasons and as the top two seeds in the AFC, it's a battle between the two best teams in the conference.
For Denver to come out victorious, these things need to take place.
Denver Broncos keys to victory over New England Patriots
Limit unforced errors
This goes without saying, as it is a key to victory in any game. But in a championship setting, where temperatures will be low and points will be at a premium, the team with the fewest turnovers and penalties called against them will likely go to the Super Bowl.
Continue recent trend against Drake Maye
Drake Maye was in the MVP conversation for most of the season and could still win the award. However, in two playoff games, he's been quite average and turnover-prone.
In two playoff games, Maye has thrown two interceptions. He's also fumbled the ball six times, losing three of them. With the best pass rush in the league, the Broncos must get pressure on Maye and force him into some more of these mistakes. If there was going to be a top factor in how the Broncos win this game, this is it.
Use pass to set up the run
There is no doubt that the Broncos must be able to find success in the running game against New England to take some pressure off Stidham. But the team needs to be creative on first down.
If the Broncos line up and run it on first down and get pushed back by the Patriots, setting up second and third-and-long situations, the Broncos will lose this game. Instead, Payton needs to work some short throws in to get Stidham in a rhythm and to set up shorter conversions on second and third down.
Dial up a gadget play
Payton, the same guy who started the second half of Super Bowl XLIV with a surprise onside kick, needs to show some of those same guts in this game. While Josh McDaniels may know Stidham better than anyone, he doesn't know what is inside Payton's playbook, and that is an area where Payton can get an advantage in this game.
There are some plays he will call with Stidham that he may not necessarily have called with Nix. In this game, he should go deep into that playbook and find a gadget play, perfectly timed, to catch New England off guard.
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Whether it be a flea flicker, a toss to the running back who then throws it back to Stidham, or something else, a trick play needs to be in the plan.
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