Yankees' Cam Schlittler predicted to win AL Cy Young over Dylan Cease due to one issue

The New York Yankees likely aren't going to have a player win the AL MVP; a fully healthy Aaron Judge probably would've been in contention, if not the frontrunner.

But Cam Schlittler has dominated this season and is the likely AL Cy Young favorite at the moment. Dylan Cease of the Toronto Blue Jays is close behind and is a serious threat to win this award.

Jim Bowden of The Athletic agrees, but is also predicting that Schlittler will win the AL Cy Young over Cease thanks to one very interesting reason: Cease's lack of consistent dominance compared to Schlittler.

Cam Schlittler predicted to win AL Cy Young over Dylan Cease for an interesting reason

"Through Thursday, he'd yielded one run or fewer in 19 of his starts," Bowden writes on Schlittler. "... Cease hasn't matched that level of dominance on a start-by-start basis, but he's overwhelmed hitters in many of his outings and leads the league in strikeouts. He should be the runner-up."

One of the main points that Bowden is bringing up to go with Schlittler over Cease for his AL Cy Young prediction is the difference in consistent dominance between the two AL aces.

Looking at Schlittler's season on a start-by-start basis, he's allowed more than one run in just eight of his 27 starts this season. That's a strong ratio, as he's either shutting teams out or allowing just one run in just under 30% of his outings.

Cease on a start-by-start basis has allowed more than one run 11 times across his 24 starts this season. That's a little over 45% of his outings resulting in two or more runs allowed.

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There's no denying Cease is great, with his 2.37 ERA and 209 strikeouts in 144.1 innings being fantastic figures. But Schlittler's 2.16 ERA and 193 strikeouts in 158 innings, with much better start-by-start dominance, could be the difference.

At least, that is what Bowden is predicting will make the difference. It's an interesting reason to give for what's likely to be a very close Cy Young race.

But with the 15% difference in one-run or fewer starts between the two, Schlittler is more dominant a lot more consistently, than Cease has been this season.

The Yankees' ace still needs to finish the year strong, but Bowden is predicting Schlittler will wind up the AL Cy Young, thanks in part to this start-by-start dominance being better than Cease's.

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