Why Trent Grisham might've made a big mistake last offseason with Yankees

The New York Yankees were mildly surprised last offseason when Trent Grisham accepted the qualifying offer. His $22.025 million deal with the Yankees for 2026 means he'll be a free agent after the season comes to a close.

While it guaranteed he landed a strong one-year deal, it was also a long-term risk for Grisham. Unfortunately, it appears that the risk did not pay off for Grisham.

Grisham might've made a big mistake last offseason by accepting the qualifying offer, as CBS Sports' Matt Snyder highlighted that Grisham's 2025 season looks more like an outlier than what he can do on a yearly basis after his 2026 regression.

Trent Grisham might've made a huge mistake last offseason with Yankees

"If a player hits free agency coming off a season like that, there will generally be at least one team willing to bet the changes made will stick moving forward," Snyder writes. "Now that we've seen him regress back to where he was pre-2025, few teams will be willing to dream on the upside."

Grisham is going to be 30 years old next season, and while he could still have time to land a strong long-term deal, this offseason or last year's offense was his best chance.

In 143 games for the Yankees a year ago, Grisham posted 3.5 bWAR with 34 homers, 74 RBIs, 82 walks, and an .811 OPS with a 123 OPS+, all of which were career highs.

But instead of testing the waters and seeking out a long-term deal with more money than the qualifying offer, Grisham accepted the $22.025 million offer from the Yankees and took a gamble on his career.

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That hasn't worked out, as Grisham has posted a .703 OPS and 95 OPS+ this season across 121 games. His 0.6 bWAR this season is one of the worst marks of his career.

Grisham looked like a potential future star last offseason, but now he's likely to be a one-year rental for a team taking a chance on the veteran outfielder on a prove-it deal.

Considering how promising his prospects were last offseason, his decision to accept the $22.025 million qualifying offer looks like a major mistake.

Even if he finds a way to land a long-term deal at some point in the future, his decision to pass on such a chance and bet on himself in 2026 might wind up being a costly mistake.

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