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It's been 12 years since NHL players competed in the Olympics, but the 2026 tournament has been worth the wait. The men's knockout stage has featured five one-goal games, including three in overtime, leading to the crown jewel of a gold medal game: the United States vs. Canada.
When these two teams take the ice, the best players in the world will face off in a battle of two perceived superteams. On one side is a Canada team that has won three of the last four gold medals featuring NHL players. On the other side is a United States team that hasn't won a men's ice hockey gold medal of any kind since 1980.
This matchup will be highly anticipated and a fitting conclusion to the 2026 Winter Olympics. A year ago, when Canada and the United States played in the 4 Nations final, it took a Connor McDavid overtime goal to decide the winner.
No matter what happens on Sunday, the game will be remembered for years to come, just like Canada's overtime winner against the United States in the 2010 gold medal game. In fact, these teams have only met twice in a gold medal game, both resulting in a Canada win.
Of course, there has to be a winner. Here's a breakdown of the United States vs. Canada to close out the 2026 Winter Olympics.
MORE 2026 OLYMPICS: Live medal tracker | Viewer's guide | Day-by-day schedule
USA vs. Canada betting odds
- Spread: Canada -1.5
- Over/under: 5.5
- Moneyline: Canada -125, United States +105
Canada is a slight favorite in the gold medal game, according to DraftKings, and the over/under for the game is 5.5. By all accounts, this expected to be a close game.
MORE: Complete history of the United States vs. Canada in the Winter Olympics
USA vs. Canada pick, prediction
The United States and Canada were the two favorites to meet in the gold medal game, and both enter Sunday with perfect 5-0-0 records.
Canada had an impressive preliminary round, winning three straight games by a combined score of 20-3. However, the Canadians faced more difficulty in the knockout stages, winning both the quarterfinal and semifinal by just one goal each. That could be a warning sign when Canada takes on a team as talented as the United States, as both games required comebacks to advance.
The breakout star for Canada has been Macklin Celebrini, the former No. 1 pick and second-year NHL star for the San Jose Sharks. Celebrini has played on the top line with Connor McDavid and is the only player in the Olympics with five goals in the tournament.
It's hard to beat the best on Canada, which features McDavid, Celebrini, Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Devon Toews. When it's crunch time, head coach Jon Cooper leans on these players.
However, the big questions for Canada will be Sidney Crosby's health. The captain left the quarterfinals with an injury, and didn't play in the semifinals on Friday. Crosby is the most experienced player in the Olympics, having scored a golden goal to win the 2010 gold medal, so his loss would be a massive blow.
The United States has gotten to the gold medal game in a similar fashion, dominating the preliminary rounds and having an overtime scare against Sweden in the quarterfinals. The difference is that the U.S. had a pretty stress-free win in the semifinals, allowing the team to look ahead to Sunday.
Unsurprisingly, the Tkachuks and the Hughes brothers have been stars for the United States, who have had a more balanced scoring attack throughout. Captain Auston Matthews and Jack Eichel have also been effective, producing six points each.
Where the United States has the biggest advantage is in goal. Connor Hellebuyck is the reigning NHL MVP, and he's played like it following, while Jordan Binnington has been shakier in net for Canada despite playing better than he has in the NHL this year.
Hellebuyck has made 90 saves on 95 shots, allowing just 1.23 goals per game, the best in the Olympics among starters. Binnington's 74 saves on 81 shots is very good himself, but not to the Hellebuyck's level.
When these teams met in the four nations final last year, Binnington outplayed Hellebuyck with one of the best games of his career. This time around, Hellebuyck will return the favor and prove to be the difference between gold and silver.
USA vs. Canada final score prediction
USA 2, Canada 1
English (US)