Who will win title? Will Max leave Red Bull? - Key questions as F1 returns

Formula 1's summer break is over and the 2026 season restarts in the Netherlands this weekend as the championship run-in looms over the final months of the campaign.

We asked Sky Sports F1 pundit Karun Chandhok to run the rule over some of the key questions left to be answered on and off track this year and predict how things might pan out from here…

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How many drivers still have a realistic title shot?

Kimi Antonelli's 50-point championship lead puts him firmly in the hunt, but fewer points cover Lewis Hamilton in second down to Lando Norris, the winner of the last race in Hungary, in fifth. With two Sprints and up to 12 Grands Prix to go, there are potentially as many as 316 points left to play for between now and December.

Karun says: "I think, realistically, this is Antonelli's championship to lose. Nobody has come back from this big a points deficit since we went to this scoring system in 2010. Kimi is driving well, he has got a lot of confidence in the car and the way it's working for him.

"The only Achilles' heel seems to be Mercedes' reliability. That could be a challenge, but they are going to keep improving that. So realistically, I think it is his championship to lose, which is an extraordinary achievement in just his second year in F1.

"The only thing I would say is, with the way the upgrades and updates are going, it will be interesting to see what Ferrari can do, and also whether any of Mercedes' upgrades help George Russell out, because it does feel like he has had obviously more bad luck but also a pace disadvantage this year.

"I think it is only Lewis or maybe George who could challenge him, but it's more his to lose."

Which team is the one to watch for development?

In-season car development is always crucial in Formula 1 but the stakes have been raised this year with teams still in the early stages of understanding how to unlock the best performance from the all-new 2026 aerodynamic rules and engines. The first half of the season saw teams make big jumps in performance at races they brought update packages, and others did not, with that trend expected to continue after the summer break.

Karun says: "I'm interested to see what McLaren do. Clearly the car was very good in Budapest and that bodes well for the Dutch Grand Prix because whoever is good in Budapest should have a good car for Zandvoort.

"And they've got more bits coming this weekend on the rear end of the car as well, which is the second half of the update.

"The big one to keep an eye out for is Red Bull, because they have been a bit more inconsistent and there's a bit of a battle on for them to play catch-up.

"If you look at it across the season, they have had the fourth-fastest car, which is not ideal in terms of trying to keep Max happy and at the team.

"So, Red Bull are the ones I'm most interested in watching out for to see if they can dig themselves out of this hole in terms of inconsistencies."

Where will Max Verstappen end up driving for 2027?

The big question on which the volatility of the driver market hinges. Max Verstappen is contracted to Red Bull until the end of 2028 but a position outside the top two of the Drivers' Championship at the summer break - he sits in sixth place - means he is free to activate a break clause in the deal for the end of this year, should he wish. The answer to the question of whether he will or not remains unknown with Verstappen thought to have until October to tell Red Bull should he want to leave. Immediate alternative options for him for 2027, however, should he want to continue in F1 remain uncertain despite links to McLaren and Mercedes.

Karun says: "I have no idea when Max will end up driving in 2027 but I think realistically, I don't think he knows yet either.

"I think he is waiting to see where the Red Bull goes and really what other options there are."

Will Fernando Alonso race on or retire from F1 for 2027?

Fernando Alonso said he would use the summer break to decide on whether he will extend his F1 career into a record-extending 24th campaign next season. The Spaniard, who turned 45 in July and became a father for the first time earlier this year, has downplayed suggestions his decision completely rests on how competitive he expects Aston Martin to be in 2027, saying that it will also be influenced on how he feels about the sport's current rules.

Karun says: "I think if Aston can demonstrate that they are going to make progress and Honda can demonstrate that they are making progress and they can give Alonso a car that at least gets him into Q3 and gives him something to fight for in 2027, then he will stick around.

"He is not going to stick around to be someone who gets knocked out in Q1 all the time."

How high will Aston Martin get up the grid?

The clear underperformer of the season's first half after all manner of issues with their 2026 chassis and Honda engine left them at the back of the grid, Aston Martin delivered what they hope will provide the first of many steps forward with their first car upgrade last time out in Hungary. Further revisions to Adrian Newey's AMR26 and the first long-awaited engine upgrade, which is set to arrive at Zandvoort, offer the potential for further progress heading towards 2027.

Karun says: "Aston Martin have got to get themselves in a position where they need to end this year at least occasionally getting into Q3 because that then lays the foundation for 2027 and beyond.

"The engine upgrades will be critical for that. If you look at their straight-line speed at Spa, it was shocking. They brought the updated chassis to Budapest and that seemed to give them some performance advantage, a decent step.

"So really with the engine advantage, they might occasionally sneak themselves into Q3, which would be good progress but more importantly, a good foundation."

How many drivers will win races over the remaining rounds?

F1 broke for summer on a run of five different winners in as many races with both Mercedes drivers, both Ferrari drivers and McLaren's Lando Norris standing on the top step of the podium during that run.

Karun says: "I think there is a chance we could see both Ferrari drivers, McLaren drivers and Mercedes drivers winning races, and Max.

"If Red Bull do upgrade well and bring good bits and pieces, then we could see Max winning. He wasn't that far off in Austria, and the car steadily made progress. They need a couple of jumps and they could do it."

What will Sepang be like on F1's return and who might the track favour?

For the first time in nine years, F1 will race at the much-loved Sepang International Circuit in October after Malaysia agreed to host the Bahrain Grand Prix. Sepang built a reputation as both a driver and fan favourite across its 18 years on the calendar, with the track featuring challenging corner combinations and providing good racing.

Karun says: "I love Sepang. I first raced there in 2001, which was my first year of international racing. I've been back in lots of different categories and have always absolutely loved the circuit.

"I think it is a really interesting, challenging layout, good for racing. I'm delighted to see everyone going back there, albeit temporarily.

"I think we are going to see a fantastic race. For this year's cars, there are plenty of opportunities to harvest and recharge the batteries and energy around chunks of the lap, so it should be a pretty good race all round.

"It is going to be hot, so anyone who can keep the tyre temperatures under control will be in good shape."

Who will win the 2026 championships?

Antonelli's half-century lead at mid-season makes him the clear bookmakers' favourite ahead of Lewis Hamilton and George Russell, who was most people's tips for the title at the start of the year.

Mercedes would likely have been away and clear already and not just 72 points ahead of Ferrari had they not suffered from reliability problems. Nonetheless, Ferrari outscored them in each of the three races before the summer break and, with reliability on their side, aren't to be ruled out yet. McLaren were 78 points back on Red Bull with 12 races to go in 2024 and ended up as champions.

Karun says: "I think this is Antonelli's drivers' title to lose, and Mercedes' Constructors' Championship to lose."

The Formula 1 season resumes after the summer break with a Sprint weekend at the Dutch Grand Prix from Friday, with every session live on Sky Sports. Stream Sky Sports with NOW - no contract, cancel anytime