Where are the March Madness upsets? No teams seeded 12 or worse advance past first weekend in Cinderella-less tournament

In last year's NCAA Tournament, all four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four -- just the second time that has ever happened. This year, it looks like we're heading for another March dominated by the blue bloods.

With the Sweet 16 round approaching, there is set to be no seed lower than a No. 11, which is the Texas Longhorns, to advance past the first two March Madness rounds. Coming into this year's tournament, there was an expectation for some top-heavy results -- but every college basketball fan loves an upset. In 2026, they haven't gotten too many.

Between the disparity of star-studded top teams to capable underdogs, to a first round that didn't include many close games, upsets have been hard to come by in the bracket.

Here's a breakdown of the lack of upsets in the 2026 NCAA Tournament so far.

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March Madness upsets in 2026

There were just six betting underdogs who won in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, down from seven last year. Two of them were No. 9 seeds over No. 8 seeds, naturally the most straightforward coin-flips in the bracket.

Here they are:

• No. 12 High Point over No. 5 Wisconsin
• No. 11 VCU over No. 6 UNC
• No. 11 Texas over No. 6 BYU
• No. 10 Texas A&M over No. 7 Saint Mary's
• No. 9 TCU over No. 8 Ohio State
• No. 9 Saint Louis over No. 8 Georgia

That list does not include No. 9 Iowa's win over No. 8 Clemson or No. 9 Utah State's win over No. 8 Villanova, as both of the lower seeds were considered the favorites in those matchups.

The lowest seed to reach the second round was No. 12 High Point, which pulled off the biggest upset of the first round by toppling fifth-seeded Wisconsin. However, in the Round of 32, the Panthers then fell to No. 4 Arkansas.

That means that the lowest seed to reach the Sweet 16 this year will be No. 11 Texas, which has taken down BYU and Gonzaga. In 2025, no seed lower than No. 10 reached the Sweet 16. In 2024, No. 11 NC State made a run to the Final Four.

In total, there four double-digit seeds to win their first-round NCAA Tournament game in 2026, which is down from five in 2025 and seven in 2024. The Sweet 16 field, one way or another, is also set to be dominated by Power 4 squads, including five Big Ten teams already clinching their spots.

There were some surprises in the bracket, namely being High Point's triumph over Wisconsin and Texas' run to the Sweet 16. But unlike some past years, there weren't many significant Cinderellas, such as a No. 14 or No. 15 seed, to pull off some magic.

As we head into the Sweet 16 and beyond, Texas will be the closest thing to a "Cinderella" still around.

HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5

Where are all the March Madness upsets?

Part of the fun of March Madness is the unexpected aspect of which elite teams could fall early against a smaller school that snuck into the bracket by winning its conference championship. But that doesn't mean every year will bring Cinderellas -- there's a reason they're so rare. And in 2026, the expectation heading into the NCAA Tournament was that it would be another year dominated by the blue bloods.

The bracket is naturally top-heavy, but take the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds' pregame betting spreads in the first round, via Fox Sports, as an example of why there haven't been huge upsets:

• No. 1 Duke (-28.5) vs. No. 16 Siena
• No. 1 Michigan (-30.5) vs. No. 16 Howard
• No. 1 Arizona (-30.5) vs. No. 16 LIU
• No. 1 Florida (-35.5) vs. No. 16 Prairie View A&M
• No. 2 Houston (-23.5) vs. No. 15 Idaho
• No. 2 Iowa State (-24.5) vs. No. 15 Tennessee State
• No. 2 Purdue (-25.5) vs. No. 15 Queens 
• No. 2 UConn (-20.5) vs. No. 15 Furman

Of those top-two seeds, only UConn (won by 11), Michigan (won by 21) and Duke (won by six) didn't cover their massive spreads. Not a single game between the alphas and underdogs was remotely expected to be close -- they usually aren't, but some years, there's a recipe for a potential upset due to aspects like injuries to stars.

So, it wasn't much of a surprise to see no major upsets in the first round. Even among the 12-5 matchups, everybody's favorite upset pick, High Point was the only one that managed to sneak into the second round. Vanderbilt handled business against McNeese, St. John's blew out Northern Iowa, and Texas Tech steamrolled through Akron. The bracket matchups simply didn't play out to create the chance of big upsets, especially with teams like St. John's having cases as being a very strong fifth seed.

Perhaps some of the blame for the lack of upsets can be put on NIL, the transfer portal and the shape of college basketball right now. But then again, there aren't going to be massive upsets every year. The top seeds are the top seeds for a reason, and the same can be said of the lower seeds. 

In a season where the elite teams like Duke, Michigan, Florida, Houston and Arizona could rarely be stopped all year, it shouldn't be much of a surprise that a mix of other conference champions couldn't take them down. 

Surely, upset-heavy NCAA Tournaments will come again in the future. It's the nature of college basketball for them to happen when shots aren't falling for a top seed. But in 2026, it turns out, all of the top-notch squads came into the bracket prepared, either beating their opponents with ease, or like Duke and UConn, fending off an upset despite a scare.

MORE: How Big Ten teams are set to dominate the Sweet 16 field