Warsh Makes Debut on the Global Stage With the Class of 2008

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US and Canada

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In the US, the main event in a holiday-shortened week will be the monthly jobs report out on Thursday. Economists expect it to show another 115,000 workers were added to payrolls in June, which would mark the best six-month stretch for hiring in almost two years.

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Along with an expected uptick in wage growth and ongoing stability in the unemployment rate, the figures will almost certainly reinforce bets in financial markets that the Fed’s next move is more likely to be a rate hike than a cut.

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The week’s calendar also features the usual burst of other labor data that opens each month: a government report on job openings Tuesday covering the month of May, followed Wednesday by the private-sector payroll processing firm ADP Research’s monthly count of employment in June and the latest tally on announced job cuts from the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc.

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Other releases worth watching include the Conference Board’s consumer confidence report on Tuesday and the Institute for Supply Management’s latest survey of purchasing managers on Wednesday, which will likely show manufacturing activity remained solid in June.

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Aside from Warsh, there likely won’t be much Fedspeak ahead of the July 4 holiday.

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Canada’s industry-based GDP likely rose 0.4% in April, driven by stronger oil and gas extraction and manufacturing output. A flash estimate for May is also expected to point to continued momentum, supported by a pickup in both the labor market and real estate activity. Altogether, the data should suggest a rebound in the second quarter following two consecutive quarterly contractions. 

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Trade ministers from Canada, the US and Mexico will meet virtually on July 1 to formally launch the mandated review of their trilateral trade deal, as uncertainty looms over its future.

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Asia

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It’s PMI week in Asia. June data due Tuesday are expected to show that China’s official manufacturing PMI gauge nudged into expansionary territory after sliding to the boom-or-bust 50 level in May. 

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The RatingDog gauge a day later may continue to outperform the official index with its emphasis on private-sector activity. 

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On Wednesday, PMI reports will be published for Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan, Vietnam and South Korea — where the reading rose to the highest in about five years in May on the back of booming AI activity. 

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The Bank of Japan releases its quarterly Tankan survey of business sentiment on Wednesday, with economists expecting gauges to hold more or less steady in positive territory. 

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They also see companies boosting their capital spending forecasts for this fiscal year to 10.9% growth. If the results are in line with estimates, they would keep the BOJ on track for another rate hike in coming months. 

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Inflation updates are due from Indonesia, South Korea, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Vietnam. New Zealand releases June sentiment indexes for businesses and consumers, and trade figures are due during the week from Indonesia, Pakistan, Australia, South Korea, Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam and Sri Lanka.

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On the policy front, Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Christopher Kent, who oversees financial markets, will deliver a speech on Monday morning titled “Additional Monetary Policy Tools: Reflections and a New Framework.”

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Europe, Middle East, Africa

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ECB policymakers spending much of the week in Sintra will have key data releases to chew over throughout the region, with the last euro-area inflation estimate before their July decision scheduled for release on Wednesday.