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Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors handles the ball during the game against the LA Clippers on October 28, 2025 at Chase Center in San Francisco, California.
NBAE via Getty Images
Early in the NBA season, evaluating a team’s true power rating is critical to finding betting value.
A record through a handful of games certainly can mislead if the team has faced weak competition or unusual circumstances.
The Milwaukee Bucks and Golden State Warriors have a combined record of 7-2 and square off Thursday in the heartland with the Warriors installed as 3.5-point favorites at BetMGM as of Thursday morning.
The Bucks are surpassing expectations with an undefeated record against the spread (ATS). The betting market will either correct itself by rating Milwaukee higher or the Bucks will regress to what many anticipated before the season.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has been an absolute force so far with statistics emulating his two MVP seasons.
Additionally, head coach Doc Rivers has surrounded him with two sharpshooters in the starting lineup in A.J. Green and Gary Trent Jr. That has provided spacing to help rank in the top 10 in offensive efficiency.
Meanwhile, Golden State is 4-1 both outright and ATS.
Last year’s midseason acquisition of Jimmy Butler continues to prove effective. Golden State is 29-6 when both Butler and Steph Curry suit up.
Milwaukee Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo reacts after a dunk during the second half of an NBA basketball game against the New York Knicks Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2025, in Milwaukee. API have been impressed with both teams so far, but Golden State’s defense does raise some concern.
It ranks 27th in efficiency and head coach Steve Kerr has said that he is relying on scoring to protect the defense, since his half-court defense would be set and not allow transition baskets.
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I think Milwaukee ekes out a victory. The Bucks are playing with a certain sense of purpose to start this season, perhaps buoyed by Antetokounmpo’s uncertain future in Milwaukee.
Golden State is coming off an important win over the Los Angeles Clippers and I believe the Bucks will care more about this game.
My record is 73-59-1 ATS in this Post sports section and my next play is the Bucks to defeat the Warriors (+120, BetMGM).
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
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