Villanova or Utah State? How to pick 8 vs. 9 matchup in 2026 March Madness bracket

It's hard to believe Villanova is making its first NCAA Tournament appearance in four years, but the Wildcats are back in the big dance under coach Kevin Willard and aren't content just to earn a bid.

Utah State, perhaps feeling slighted after being given a No. 9 seed following Mountain West Tournament and regular season titles, is hoping to deny Villanova the chance to potentially face No. 1 Arizona in the second round.

The Aggies' offense can be a lightning rod when its at its best, with Mason Falsev and Vanderbilt transfer MJ Collins Jr. capable of getting hot in a hurry, while Villanova plays a more subdued style of basketball, but has a blend of youth and experience that separated Willard's program from the middle of the pack in the Big East this season.

Here's what you need to know to choose between Villanova and Utah State in your March Madness bracket.

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Villanova vs. Utah State odds

Utah State opens as a slight favorite over Villanova, according to DraftKings odds. The Aggies are the lower seed, but they are coming off a Mountain West title while Villanova stumbled against Georgetown in the Big East Tournament.

Here are the odds, TV info and location for the 8-9 matchup:

• Odds: Utah State -2.5
• Date: Friday, March 20
• Time: TBD
• TV: TBD
• Arena: Viejas Arena, San Diego, CA

Villanova (24-8, 15-5 in Big East)

Kevin Willard got a late start at Villanova after taking Maryland to the Sweet 16 last year, but he did well for himself by building an NCAA Tournament roster when the transfer portal was already in full swing. This could be the season before the season for Willard, but winning a first round game in the big dance is a realistic goal.

Villanova doesn’t look ready to beat high-level competition. While the Wildcats did hang around with UConn a couple times, they are 0-5 in Quad 1A games and were completely overmatched against St. John’s in late February. Willard’s team did a nice job of beating up on inferior competition, something not every team can do, but this group will have to find a new gear to make a run in the tournament.

Fortunately, the Wildcats don’t rely too heavily on any particular player. Tyler Perkins, Academy Lewis, Bryce Lindsay and Duke Brennan all share the offensive workload along with well-traveled sixth man Devin Askew. Askew is the only truly impressive shooter of the bunch, but Brennan does nice work at the rim. Lindsay has cooled down after a hot start to the season, so a high-level defense in the tournament could give him fits.

Brennan is an excellent rebounder, but only he and Perkins stand out in that department. Villanova ranks 300th nationally in defensive rebounds, partly the product of a slow pace but also the simple result of having a small team. 

One injury could have a major impact on the Wildcats. Freshman forward Matt Hodge tore his ACL two weeks before Selection Sunday, leaving Villanova down a starter and a capable shooter/rebounder. Hodge is 6-8, so his loss doesn’t make those rebounding challenges any easier, and his absence showed in a Big East Tournament loss to Georgetown. 

• NET ranking: 35th
• KenPom ranking: 33rd
• Quad 1 record: 2-6
• Quad 2 record: 8-1
• Quad 3 record: 9-1
• Quad 4 record: 5-1
• Offensive efficiency ranking: 41st
• Defensive efficiency ranking: 35th

Key players

Tyler Perkins, G, Jr. (6-4, 220): 13.7 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.2 spg

Acaden Lewis, G, Fr. (6-2, 180): 12.3 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 5.3 apg

Duke Brennan, F, Sr. (6-10, 235): 12.4 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 2.0 apg

Bryce Lindsay, G, Jr. (6-3, 190): 11.9 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 2.0 apg

Devin Askew, G, Sr. (6-3, 198): 10.0 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 40.8% 3-pt

SN AWARDS: All-America team | Player of the Year | Coach of the Year

Utah State (28-6, 15-5 in Mountain West)

Utah State was a metrics darling early in the season, not only winning, but winning by wide margins. While the Aggies stumbled a few times in Mountain West play and damaged their seeding, they are NCAA Tournament-bound for the sixth time in the last eight seasons after figuring it out and winning a conference tournament title. 

Jerrod Calhoun’s squad has a high-octane offense that goes beyond just shooting threes. Utah State shoots about 50 percent from the floor, a top-20 mark in the nation, while MJ Collins, Mason Falsev and Kolby King are all above-average 3-point shooters. Collins and Falsev are both multi-dimensional scorers, and Collins in particular has an ability to take over games.

Utah State led the Mountain West in steals, with both Falsev and Drake Allen averaging nearly two per game. Free-throw shooting was an issue at times, and size is a concern. The Aggies lack a true center who can match up with some of the nation’s better big men. There is no doubt any Utah State opponent will try to get into the paint and take advantage. To that point, no team in the Mountain West allowed more offensive rebounds this season than the Aggies. 

Despite some issues inside, Utah State opponents still only shot 48.3 percent on two-point shots, a top-70 mark nationally for the Aggies. 

When Falsev and Collins are feeling it, Utah State can be one of the hottest teams in the nation. Collins spent last season in the SEC at Vanderbilt, so he is no stranger to elevated competition. When Falsev shoots under 42 percent, however, Utah State is 4-4. He is the engine that makes this team go, and all eyes will be on him if the Aggies want to advance.

• NET ranking: 27th
• KenPom ranking: 30th
• Quad 1 record: 4-4
• Quad 2 record: 9-1
• Quad 3 record: 9-1
• Quad 4 record: 5-0
• Offensive efficiency ranking: 28th
• Defensive efficiency ranking: 44th

Key players

Mason Falsev, G, Jr. (6-3, 190): 16.1 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.0 spg

MJ Collins, G, Sr. (6-4, 190): 17.6 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.6 apg

Drake Allen, G, Sr. (6-4, 190): 7.7 ppg, 3.0 pg, 4.7 apg

Karson Templin, F, Jr. (6-8, 217): 9.1 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 0.9 bpg

Kolby King, G, Sr. (6-2, 170): 7.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.5 apg

Villanova vs. Utah State prediction

These two teams are coming into the NCAA Tournament on two different trajectories. Utah State slipped up on occasion in the Mountain West but won the conference tournament, looking every bit like the team that started off the season so hot. Villanova, on the other hand, dropped three of its last six games by double-digits and lost a key piece along the way in Matthew Hodge. 

Sometimes momentum matters, and sometimes it doesn't. Momentum or not, Utah State is the team with more firepower here. The Aggies have the metrics advantage and a stronger record in Quad 1 games. Utah State can really shoot the ball well between Falsev and Collins, both of whom have been on this stage before, though coach Jerrod Calhoun's offensive options outside of those two are thin.

Fortunately for him, his Aggies match up pretty well against Villanova. Utah State could have been pushed around by a team with size, but the Wildcats are pretty small without Hodge and aren't the type of team to bully any defense in the paint. Duke Brennan will be able to grab some rebounds as the best rebounder on the floor, but the offense for Villanova is going to have to come from somewhere else.

Villanova averaged only 67 points per game against NCAA Tournament team this season and is trending in the wrong direction at the moment. If it's a race to 67 or 70, or anything in that range, the safer bet is on Utah State's offense to deliver, with the risk being the volatility of Falsev or Collins from beyond the arc. 

HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5

History of 8 vs. 9 matchups in NCAA Tournament

The 8-9 matchup is historically one of the biggest "coin flip" selections in the NCAA Tournament. Eight seeds have a very slight advantage all-time, posting a 81-79 record in 160 total matchups.

No. 9 seeds, however, won five of the last eight matchups, including three of four in 2024. 

Below is the recent history of 9-seeds upsetting 8-seeds in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.