Texas Tech or Akron? How to pick 5 vs. 12 matchup in 2026 March Madness bracket

Texas Tech might have to adjust its expectations after losing star JT Toppin to a season-ending torn ACL, but the Red Raiders are still a formidable team. With Christian Anderson now the focal point of the offense and Donovan Atwell showcasing his shooting ability, Grant McCasland's team has its sights set on a return to the second weekend after narrowly missing the Final Four last year.

Akron, back in the NCAA Tournament for the fourth time in the last five seasons, is hoping to deal Texas Tech an early exit after losing just one game in conference play. The Zips didn't live up to expectations in the opening round last year, but they could be poised to give one of the Big 12's perennial powerhouses a scare this time around.

Here's what you need to know to choose between Texas Tech and Akron in your March Madness bracket.

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Texas Tech vs. Akron odds

Texas Tech opens as a moderate favorite over Akron, according to DraftKings odds. The Zips are the smallest underdog of the 5-seeds, with Toppin's absence certainly a factor. 

Here are the odds, TV info and location for the 5-12 matchup:

• Odds: Texas Tech -7.5
• Date: Friday, March 20
• Time: 12:40 p.m. ET
• TV: TruTV
• Arena: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL

STREAM: Watch Texas Tech vs. Akron live with DIRECTV

Texas Tech (22-10, 10-6 in Big 12)

Even after losing Darrion Williams to the transfer portal, Texas Tech entered the season with Final Four expectations. The loss of star JT Toppin changes those expectations. Toppin, who was averaging 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds per game before tearing his ACL in February, isn’t a loss to gloss over, and it likely limits the Red Raiders’ ceiling a year after they came within minutes of the Final Four.

This is still a talented team – Texas Tech picked up a win over Iowa State without Toppin – but the Red Raiders are 3-3 since he went down and won’t be able to sleepwalk to the second weekend.

Texas Tech relies heavily on the 3-pointer, with Christian Anderson and Donovan Atwell each attempting about eight per game and doing so with terrific efficiency. The absence of Toppin will allow defenses to put more attention toward those two, but Atwell has risen to the occasion as a scorer since his star teammate went down. LeJuan Watts will have to step up as a rebounder without Toppin, while defensive-minded sophomore Luke Bamgboye has ascended into a more featured role.

Anderson, a terrific scorer with or without Toppin, suffered a groin injury in the Big 12 Tournament but is expected to play in the NCAA Tournament. 

Red Raiders opponents are shooting just 31.5 percent from 3-point range, so sustaining that strong perimeter defense will be crucial to reaching the second weekend. 

Depth was never a concern for Texas Tech. Grant McCasland has capable bodies ready to play in the NCAA Tournament, but the question now is whether the loss of Toppin makes the Red Raiders’ offense too one-dimensional for a deep run this March.

• NET ranking: 18th
• KenPom ranking: 20th
• Quad 1 record: 7-9
• Quad 2 record: 5-1
• Quad 3 record: 7-0
• Quad 4 record: 3-0
• Offensive efficiency ranking: 12th
• Defensive efficiency ranking: 33rd

Key players

Christian Anderson, G, So. (6-2, 165): 18.9 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 7.6 apg

Donovan Atwell, F, Sr. (6-5, 187): 13.5 ppg, 3.3 rpg45.4% 3-pt

LeJuan Watts, F, Jr. (6-6, 225): 11.5 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 2.5 apg

Jaylen Petty, G, Fr. (6-1, 168): 9.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 2.2 apg

Luke Bamgboye, F, So. (6-0, 210): 4.7 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.7 bpg

SN AWARDS: All-America team | Player of the Year | Coach of the Year

Akron (29-5, 17-1 in MAC)

Miami (Ohio) owned the headlines, but the best overall team in the MAC this season was likely Akron. The Zips, now an NCAA Tournament regular, nearly came up short in the MAC title game but punched their ticket back to the big dance after a disappointing effort in last year’s opening round.

Despite losing star Nate Johnson, Akron is one of the most talented mid-major teams in the country. The Zips returned most other key players, including leading scorer Tavari Johnson, who has taken the rare step of playing all four seasons at the same school. Johnson can score from all over, while Shammah Scott and Bowen Hardman both shoot better than 40 percent from beyond the arc.

Akron is a fast-paced, offensive-minded team, ranking third in the nation in shot attempts and shooting better than 50 percent from the floor. The Zips aren’t overly reliant on the 3-pointer, shooting better than 60 percent on 2-point shots with the help of Amani Lyles and Evan Mahaffey 

Defense was Akron’s biggest weakness in the tournament last season and could be again. John Groce’s squad ranks outside the top-100 in defensive efficiency, and teams are shooting close to 35 percent from 3-point range against the Zips. Akron doesn’t block many shots, though this team’s interior defense has done a nice job of limiting opponents’ efficiency close to the basket. 

Akron has a chance to advance this year, perhaps a better chance than a year ago with this efficient offense, but it’s going to take a better defensive approach. 

• NET ranking: 53rd
• KenPom ranking: 64th
• Quad 1 record: 0-2
• Quad 2 record: 0-2
• Quad 3 record: 11-1
• Quad 4 record: 16-0
• Offensive efficiency ranking: 54th
• Defensive efficiency ranking: 113th

Key players

Tavari Johnson, G, Sr. (5-11, 155): 20.1 ppg, 5.0 apg, 1.3 spg

Shammah Scott, G, Sr. (6-2, 180): 12.7 ppg, 2.9 apg, 42.2% 3-pt

Amani Lyles, F, Sr. (6-7, 226): 14.6 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.2 apg

Evan Mahaffey, F, Sr. (6-6, 200): 10.2 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 3.5 apg

Eric Mahaffey, G, So. (6-4, 190): 7.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 1.6 apg

HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5

Texas Tech vs. Akron prediction

Akron didn't live up to expectations on this stage a year ago. There are two reasons to believe the Zips can at least put together a more competitive effort this year: their defensive efficiency ranks about 70 spots higher than it did last year, and they are facing a team without its best player. 

That doesn't mean an upset will happen or is particularly likely to happen, but there is reason for Akron to have hope after a terrific offensive season that saw Tavari Johnson morph into a superstar. John Groce's team plays fast, maximizing possessions, while Texas Tech plays a much slower brand of basketball, ranking 224th in pace. 

Fast doesn't always win. In fact, teams that can slow the game down and control the pace often find the most success on this stage. Grant McCasland doesn't have JT Toppin at his disposal, but he does still have a strong perimeter defense and an offense that can make outside shots at any point in the game.

Scoring closer to the basket without Toppin is something to watch for the Red Raiders. Akron's interior defense is better than its perimeter defense, so Anderson an Atwell will again shoulder much of the responsibility and heave up more than a few outside shots. So far, that has been enough for Texas Tech to get by against inferior opponents. It should be enough to survive what could be a close game against Akron.

History of 5 vs. 12 upsets in NCAA Tournament

History tells us the chances of at least one 12-seed pulling off an upset this year are strong. 12-seeds have a .356 winning percentage against 5-seeds, making an upset more likely than not in a given year.

In 2025, Colorado State and McNeese both won as 12-seeds, though Colorado State was favored in its game against Memphis. This year, no 12-seed is close to being favored.

Here's a look back at all 12 over 5 upsets since 2010: