‘Twas the day before Christmas: Mawer’s 2024 year-end poem

'Swift-e-nomics was poppin’, local shops did glory, despite high ticket prices, 'twas a Love Story'

Published Dec 23, 2024  •  2 minute read

Jorge Perez arrives in a Santa Claus costume in downtown Bogota, Colombia. Photo by Fernando Vergara/Associated Press files

Each year, the people at Mawer Investment Management Ltd. offer their year-end perspective in the form of a poem for Financial Post readers. Here, Mawer reflects on a year marked by interest rate cuts, elections, AI bulls, the Swift effect and Trump’s tariff scare.

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‘Twas the day before Christmas,
And it’s time for Mawer,
To reflect on the past year:
2024.

Investors kept pondering:
When will the ball drop?
Isn’t recession coming?
Two years and no plop.

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Most central banks eased rates,
As Inflation had dwindled,
Investors celebrated,
Markets rekindled.

But Japan was different,
And made a small raise,
A hike long considered,
A move met with praise.

And the bears took their leave,
Their growls turned to sighs,
AI bulls roamed the market,
With laser-like eyes.

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But the markets were puzzling.
Is the trend too soon?
The infrastructure’s not there
To support such a boon?

And then came the third quarter,
Returns broadened out,
Technology stocks lagged,
They better not pout!

Great companies are still there,
Let us not ignore
The “S&P 493,”
Which is ripe to explore.

“Anything but China”
— for much of the year,
Investors looked elsewhere,
Too much risk and some fear.

Now there’s massive stimulus,
And some wondered how
Will the dragon take flight?
Or falter somehow?

Switching gears to fixed income,
Credit spreads so tight,
Risk seemed to be forgotten,
Like a dream in the night.

And the borrowers did thrive,
A festive parade,
The lenders found solace,
In risks underplayed.

And though high yield is tempting,
We truly avow,
The impact could be harmful,
The time is not now.

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‘Twas the year of elections,
Billions went to vote,
Seventy-two countries,
To find an antidote.

Trump elected president,
So buyer beware,
Tariff Man’s coming!
Canada: “Not fair!”

Higher tariffs, lower taxes,
Deregulation too,
All of this expected,
In the U.S. queue.

But savvy investors,
Need not nervously squirm.
The true impact of elections
On markets short term.

Swift-e-nomics was poppin’,
Local shops did glory,
Despite high ticket prices,
‘Twas a Love Story.

And Gen Alpha’s new language,
Created great shocks,
RIZZ, Bet, Sus, Skibidi,
No more “no show” socks.

Still, we try to be direct,
No jargon to confuse,
We keep being boring,
Fundamentals our muse.

Our horizon is long term,
And while uncertainty abounds,
Diversification’s a must,
To sleep well and sound.

So as we come to the end,
With caution and cheer,
We look ever onward,
To a hopeful new year.

From all of us at Mawer,
We wish you great cheer,
Peace, happiness, joy, and
A profitable new year.

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