Trump, Carney to Meet With $900 Billion Relationship on the Line

bhs4[905m]s9e2blfr5jnxym_media_dl_1.png US Census Bureau

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(Bloomberg) — Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to meet President Donald Trump inside the Oval Office in a high-pressure bid to reset a relationship that has been shaken up by tariffs and US threats to Canada’s sovereignty.

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Tuesday’s encounter comes just a week after Carney won a national election by promising voters he can guide Canada through the economic turmoil of the trade war and protect the country against aggression from the White House. In one speech after another, Carney warned Canadians that the long postwar period in which the two countries grew ever-closer has come to an end.  

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Carney has tried to lower expectations for the meeting, say he expects “difficult but constructive” talks and no immediate solution to simmering trade tensions. But it will nevertheless be a test of his ability to start fresh in the relationship with Trump, who displayed open disdain for Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau, whom he mocked as the “governor” of the 51st state.

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Canada and the US have one of the world’s largest trading relationships, exchanging $916 billion in goods and services last year, according to data from the US Census Bureau. The US had a trade deficit of $36 billion with Canada in 2024, partly driven by imports of oil and gas.  

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“So much rides on this first meeting,” said Marci Surkes, a former adviser to Trudeau and now a consultant with Compass Rose in Ottawa. “The incoming government has essentially bet the farm on their ability to manage the relationship with the president.”

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Trump has spoken of the meeting in muted language, telling reporters that he sees it as just another world leader coming to negotiate with him on tariffs and access to the US market.

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“I’m not sure what he wants to see me about but I guess he wants to make a deal, everybody does,” Trump said Monday.

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Since taking office in January, Trump has made a series of tariff announcements affecting Canada and other major US trading partners. He initially imposed 25% duties on most Canadian-made imports — saying the tariffs were necessary to stop fentanyl shipments — but later granted an exemption to products that are sold in compliance with the North American free trade pact that he signed in his first term.

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Despite that exemption, Trump has still put significant tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum and vehicles, and has threatened other sectors such as lumber, pharmaceuticals and film production. Canada’s position is that the US tariffs violate the trade accord, and it has hit back with counter-tariffs on tens of billions of dollars worth of US-made goods.

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“Why do we make cars in Canada? Why do we do our films in Canada? Come on,” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Monday on Fox Business. “It’s going to be a fascinating meeting tomorrow. I just don’t see how it works out so perfectly.”