Trio of polls show Zohran Mamdani with varying leads in home stretch of NYC mayoral race

A trio of polls show Democratic nominee and front-runner Zohran Mamdani with varying leads over ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo during the home stretch of the Big Apple’s mayoral race — ranging from a closer 10-point gap to a 25-point blowout.

A Quinnipiac University survey released Wednesday showed the race tightening, with Mamdani ahead of Cuomo by just 10 percentage points — 43% support to 33% with 14% of voters backing Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa.

A few weeks ago, Mamdani was ahead 46% to 33%, with Cuomo picking up ground after Mayor Eric Adams announced he would not seek re-election.

“Zohran Mamdani has a 10-point lead over Andrew Cuomo with Curtis Sliwa a distant third, but one wildcard remains. The percentage of likely voters not weighing in has increased a bit since earlier this month, suggesting there’s room for movement in the final stretch,” said Quinnipiac assistant director Mary Snow.

But Mamdani holds a yawning 25-point lead over Cuomo, who is running as an independent — 50% to 25%, according to the Emerson College/Pix11/The Hill poll released Thursday morning.

In that survey, 21% of supporters backed Sliwa, nearly splitting the anti-Mamdani vote with Cuomo. Sliwa’s backing was higher than in other surveys.

Since Emerson College’s prior poll last month, Mamdani’s support increased 7 points from 43% to 50%; Cuomo lost three points, 28% to 25%; and Sliwa gained 11 points, doubling from 10% to 21%.

Mamdani’s support jumped from 50% to 71% among black voters, consolidating the backing of a key constituency since defeating Cuomo in the Democratic primary.

A third poll conducted by the Marist Institute for Public Opinion and released Thursday morning comes out in the middle — showing Mamdani with a 16-point lead over Cuomo — 48% to 32% — with 16% support for Sliwa.

A poll released Monday by Suffolk University showed that Cuomo had cut Mamdani’s lead in half from 20 points to 10 points.

“It’s Mamdani’s race to lose. Mamdani is in a strong position,” said Marist pollster Lee Miringoff.

He said Cuomo and other critics have not been able to knock down Mamdani’s likability among voters.

A majority of likely voters — 57% — have a favorable view of Mamdani.

By comparison, 55% of city voters have an unfavorable view of Cuomo.

“Cuomo is upside down,” Miringoff said.

The Democratic Socialist is benefiting from the anti-Mamdani vote being split between Cuomo and Sliwa.

In a hypothetical head-to-head without Sliwa in the race, Mamdani leads Cuomo by only 7 points, 51% to 44%, in the Marist College survey.

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Without Cuomo in the race, Mamdani leads Sliwa 59% to 33%.

Mamdani also has a staggering lead among younger voters age 45 and under — 64% to 21% for Cuomo in the Marist poll.

Cuomo split voters over the age of 45 — with 39% for the former governor to 38% for Mamdani.

Mamdani also led by huge margins among liberal voters, while Cuomo led more narrowly among moderate voters. Sliwa garnered 45% of conservative voters, more than Cuomo or Mamdani.

A majority of Jewish voters — 55% — support Cuomo. But Mamdani had the backing of a third of Jews despite his bashing of Israel, in the Marist poll.

The Emerson College poll claims those who already voted early favored Mamdani by a 33-point margin, 58% to 25%, while those who have yet to vote break for Mamdani by 19 points, 45% to 26%.

Emerson queried 640 voters from Oct. 25-27, and the findings have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

The Marist poll interviewed 792 likely voters from Oct. 24-28 through live phone interviews, texts or online. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

Quinnipiac surveyed 911 New York City likely voters from October 23-27, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.