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(Bloomberg) — TotalEnergies SE raised its forecasts for long-term oil demand and concluded that the world is on track for a rise in average global temperatures in excess of 2C.
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The ambition laid out in the Paris Climate Agreement of keeping global warming well below 2C looks to be “out of reach,” the French oil and gas giant concluded in its annual Energy Outlook published on Tuesday.
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The world “would require stronger international cooperation” to achieve this target, but instead is experiencing “geopolitical fragmentation and tensions,” according to Aurelien Hamelle, TotalEnergies’ head of strategy and sustainability.
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An average increase of between 2.2C and 2.4C remains achievable, but current trends put the world on course for 2.6C to 2.8C, according to the report, which comes just days before the start of the COP30 climate talks in Brazil.
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Demand for oil products will remain stable until 2040, then slowly decline to reach 98 million barrels a day in 2050 under the company’s current-trends scenario, representing only a minor drop from today. That’s also higher than TotalEnergies’ report last year, with the company citing stronger growth in consumption of jet fuel and petrochemicals.
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Under another scenario in which there is a faster shift away from fossil fuels, demand is seen at 79 million barrels a day in 2050, also higher than in last year’s report.
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On Monday, TotalEnergies Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne joined the bosses of Eni SpA, BP Plc and Saudi Aramco at the Adipec conference in Abu Dhabi in saying they’re not worried about oil demand growth.
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India is the top driver of the growth in consumption, along with other nations in Asia and the Middle East, offsetting a decline in Europe and China, according to the report. Demand from aviation and petrochemicals will grow in that period, with electric vehicle penetration leading to a slow decline after 2040.
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Global natural gas demand is expected to grow until the 2040s, mainly underpinned by China and India, followed by a plateau, according to the report. In all scenarios, global electricity demand will increase, driven by new uses like transport, cooling, construction and data centers.
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