Top housing markets where deals are most likely to close

Cancelled home sales dipped at the start of 2026, showcasing market resilience as buyers stuck to their purchasing plans in the face of growing economic uncertainty.

In February, the share of failed home sales stood at 7.2%, down from 7.4% a year ago and lower than January’s 7.6%, signaling stability, according to the latest Realtor.com® monthly housing market trends report.

This comes as pending home sales, which are listings under contract and in the final stages of closing, climbed 4.2% annually, marking the largest year-over-year increase in 15 months. This is a benchmark that Realtor.com senior economist Jake Krimmel partly attributes to mortgage rates remaining at multiyear lows since mid-January and even slipping below 6% at the end of February.

In a climate of low consumer confidence and heightened economic uncertainty driven by disappointing jobs numbers, a volatile tariff policy, and an armed conflict in Iran, economists have been keeping a close watch on buyers pulling the plug on home purchases.

However, February data shows little evidence of a “throw in the towel” mentality. Instead of a red-flag surge in pending deals moving back to active status, indicating cancellations, the market remained remarkably stable.

Among the 50 largest U.S. metros, five markets stand out for their exceptional buyer resolve. New York City leads with a national low of just 2.7% of deals falling through, followed by Buffalo, NY (2.9%), Raleigh, NC (3.4%), San Jose, CA (3.4%), and San Francisco (3.6%).

“While it’s hard to know for sure why any individual deal falls apart, one oft-cited culprit is financing issues,” says Krimmel. “There’s reason to believe that in wealthy top metros like New York, San Jose, and San Francisco, higher-income buyers there might not run up against financing roadblocks.”

Other metros that in February saw particularly low percentages of contract cancellations include Virginia Beach, VA (3.7%), Hartford, CT (4.3%), Richmond, VA (4.3%), Philadelphia (4.5%), and Minneapolis (4.6%).

New York City’s nonrefundable deposits

What keeps buyers committed to a closing? The answer depends on the market. In high-priced, inventory-starved coastal metros, buyers worry they might not find another comparable property if they walk away. Meanwhile, in areas with more plentiful supply, a combination of elevated affordability and demand keeps home purchasers on track.

Donna Olshan, president and real estate agent at Olshan Realty, tells Realtor.com that in New York City, there is another crucial factor stopping buyers from walking away.

“In New York, it is absolutely customary that a purchaser puts a 10% deposit down on contract to be held by the seller’s attorney in escrow,” she says. “The deposit is not refundable, unless there is a mortgage contingency and the buyer can’t get a mortgage, or if the co-op board rejects the buyer.”

When purchasing a co-op or a condominium, a buyer’s attorney would typically do their due diligence, thoroughly researching the property, down to the reading of the minutes of co-op or condo board meetings.

“By the time all of this is done, a buyer knows a lot about the property and puts down 10% and it’s locked in,” she notes.

In the Big Apple, the median list price was $749,450 last month and the typical home stayed on the market a day less than a year ago as new listings plunged nearly 12% annually.

Bulletproof financing in the San Francisco Bay Area

In San Jose, the nation’s most expensive large metro, where the median home comes with a staggering $1,349,000 price tag, the buyer pool predominantly consists of exceptionally well-paid, sophisticated technology professionals, which makes financing failures and last-minute affordability emergencies less common compared to other markets, according to Alexander Kalla, a Bay Area–based real estate agent.

“Buyers today tend to be data‑driven and analytical, modeling payments, taxes, and different rate scenarios long before they write an offer,” explains Kalla. “Lenders in this market are used to that sophistication, so pre‑approval, underwriting, and contingency planning are usually tight before a contract is signed, which reduces the risk of cold feet once they’re in escrow.”

At the same time, inventory in San Jose remains tight, keeping the metro seller-friendly. During slower months, Kalla says, would-be buyers pounce on available listings, and this scarcity mindset makes them more willing to work through inspection issues and appraisal gaps, rather than walk away and restart their search.

“Nationally, cancellations have surged as higher inventory and softer pricing give buyers more alternatives and less fear of missing out,” adds the agent. “San Jose is almost the opposite: Even when inventory ticks up, it rarely reaches a level where buyers feel flooded with options, and homes in desirable school districts or close to major campuses still draw strong, committed demand.”

Kalla points out that for many households, buying in the San Jose area is not just a transaction but also an identity and lifestyle milestone offering access to prestigious schools and social circles tied to prime neighborhoods.

“That emotional premium, on top of significant financial investment, makes backing out feel far costlier,” he says.

On the East Coast, Hartford, CT, is one of just seven major metros where active listings plunged in February, reflecting tightening housing supply.

“It’s certainly super tough to get a house with our inventory issues today,” Carl Lantz, a West Hartford–based real estate agent at Coldwell Banker Realty, tells Realtor.com. “So it would have to be a big reason to cancel the deal you waited so long and worked so hard to get as a buyer.” 

Long-term cancellation trend

Historically, cancellations spiked to 10.5% in March 2020 at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, then fell to an unusually low 5.4% in May 2021 as the homebuying frenzy marked by intense competition reached a fever pitch.

Deal failures climbed again in late 2022 as mortgage rates rose steeply from their pandemic-era lows, resulting in financing volatility that made closings less certain.

“As rates settled into a higher but more stable range, cancellations eased and have remained relatively steady through 2024 and early 2026,” explains Krimmel.