Top brokerages see up to 20% upside for SBI stock in a year

Synopsis

State Bank of India shares surged following strong September-quarter results, with analysts upgrading price targets and projecting a 7-20% upside. The bank's profit after tax rose 10% year-on-year, beating estimates, and asset quality improved. This performance has attracted renewed investor interest in public sector banks.

Shares of State Bank of India (SBI) are seeing a surge in investor optimism after the lender’s strong September-quarter results, prompting a series of price target upgrades from analysts. While derivatives data showed fresh bullish positions being built, top brokerages are projecting a 7–20% upside in the stock over the next 12 months.

SBI’s standalone profit after tax rose 10% year-on-year to ₹20,160 crore in the second quarter, compared with ₹18,331 crore a year ago, beating estimates of a fall in profits. Asset quality improved, with net NPA declining to 0.42% from 0.53% a year earlier.

“SBI’s robust set of numbers is among the best in the industry,” said Pankaj Pandey, head of fundamental research at ICICI Direct. “Even excluding the one-time gains from the Yes Bank stake sale, operational performance remains solid. Public sector banks are witnessing a shift in investor interest from private peers, and SBI’s strong results reinforce the growth story for the sector.”

ICICI Direct has revised its price target on the stock to ₹1,120, implying an upside of 17% over Tuesday’s close of ₹954.6. Financial markets were shut on Wednesday for Guru Nanak Jayanti.

The lender’s shares have gained 9.2% in the past month and 20.3% in 2025 so far amid the renewed investor interest in public sector banks that has helped them outperform their private sector peers and the broader market. “We remain positive on PSBs (public sector banks) in general (including SBI) due to their improving growth trajectory, margin resiliency, and better asset quality performance,” said Emkay Global in a note to clients, while retaining a buy on the stock with a price target of ₹1,100, suggesting an upside of 15.2%.

After the betterthan-expected earnings from the state-owned lender, traders created fresh bullish positions in its derivative contracts “In the past three trading sessions, we are seeing a continuous rise in open interest (in SBI futures)” said Vipin Kumar, assistant vice-president of derivatives and technical research at Globe Capital Market. “On Tuesday, it again added nearly 5% open interest in long positions in the November contract.”

Kumar said the rollover in SBI futures to November on expiry of the October contracts last week was at 84%, below the previous three-month average of 93.5%.

Analysts said investors are betting on continued improvement in its profitability.

“We see things getting only better from here for SBI as the macro environment remains supportive, with most banks benefiting from GST rationalisation and RBI’s rate cuts,” said Akshay Tiwari, research analyst, Asit C. Mehta Financial Services. “The bank’s provisions being under control has been a major driver for this performance. Fundamentally, SBI is well-positioned for further growth in advances and sustained margin improvement going forward.”

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