China Climate Experts See Top Polluter Beating Emissions Goal

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(Bloomberg) — A majority of experts on China’s climate and energy policies expect the world’s top polluter to outperform fresh emissions-reduction targets that have been criticized as too timid, according to a new study.

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The survey of 68 experts — the majority of whom are based in China — found 47 of them expect Asia’s largest economy to surpass a new goal outlined by President Xi Jinping in September, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and International Society for Energy Transition Studies said Thursday.

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China pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 7% to 10% from peak levels by 2035, setting targets for the first time that address pollutants beyond carbon dioxide and which are based on total volumes, rather than intensity metrics. 

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Even so, the strategy has been assessed as unambitious by analysts. For example, carbon emissions from fuel combustion are likely to fall by 37% over the next decade, even under a scenario that assumes no further policy support and market-driven clean technology deployment, according to BloombergNEF. 

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“Most experts in China see it as very conservative and expect it to be overachieved,” said Belinda Schäpe, a China policy analyst at CREA and co-author of the new report.

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China accounts for almost 30% of global emissions, meaning the speed at which it can reduce pollution has huge ramifications for efforts to limit global warming. 

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“The question is no longer whether China can peak emissions before 2030, but how to keep the plateau short and move quickly into structural decline,” said Xunpeng Shi, a professor at University of Technology Sydney and a founding member of ISETS. “Further progress hinges on accelerating power sector reforms, advancing deep electrification, and strengthening financial coordination.”

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Respondents to the survey were less optimistic on the immediate path for China’s carbon emissions. Only 18% of experts indicated the nation’s peak level will be reached this year or has already been achieved, compared with 44% of those canvassed in a similar study in 2024.

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“There are quite a lot of concerns that more economic stimulus may be needed to meet the economic challenges, and that could then result in emissions growth,” Schäpe said.

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