The eight teams still in the running for the title of The Sporting News High School Football National Champion

It's never over until it's over.

But we've reached the point in the season heading into the playoffs where we can start to zero in on the teams that are still in the national championship picture heading into the postseason in the "Big 4" states of California, Florida, Georgia, and Texas. And we've identified eight teams ranked in our national Top 12 who have viable, if not completely realistic, chances at winning a national title.

We say viable in the sense that some of these scenarios could develop over several weeks in the postseason, and they involve individual upsets that could very well happen. But, we also acknowledge that having all of those upsets happen in a single postseason to open the door for some of these teams isn't very realistic.

It would involve one of the wildest postseasons in the history of national high school football, but, hey, we're ready for the ride if that's where it leads us.

MORE NATIONAL HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL HEADLINES

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• Streak Busters Week 13 – double-digit win streaks fall across the country

The Sporting News High School National Championship Picture

All of our eight remaining contenders hail from the "Big 4" high school football states identified above. We have attempted to rank the contenders in the order in which they control their own destiny, so to speak, which isn't to say it is easy or even likely. It's just an attempt to put teams in an order where they would rank if they won out. In other words, which teams control their own destiny, and which teams need help?

This is only an analysis of where things stand today as we head into the postseason. It's not a guarantee of any team's position, even if the scenarios unfold as described below. The manner in which games and outcomes are determined will still play a role in SN's final selection process, but this represents an attempt to sort out where things stand as we head deeper into high school football's postseason and begin to sort out which team is most deserving of the title of The Sporting News High School Football National Champion.

Scenario No. 1: An undefeated Georgia Class 6A State Champion

SN No. 2 Grayson [Loganville, GA] Rams (10-0) OR
SN No. 6 Buford [GA] Wolves (10-0)

What needs to happen for this scenario to take effect: Either current No. 2 Grayson or current No. 6 Buford needs to win out.

There are two undefeated Georgia Class 6A teams ranked in SN's Top 6 at the moment, and if either of them wins the state championship, they would likely be first in the pecking order for the title of national champion. Georgia's GHSA Class 6A bracket is considered among the nation's most difficult postseason paths, and breaking it down further heading into the playoffs, we project that SN No. 2 Grayson will meet the current SN No. 20 Carrollton [GA] Trojans in the quarterfinals on November 28.

In this scenario, both teams would be 12-0, and if Grayson won, then the Rams would advance to the semifinals. The other semifinal in that scenario could be two ranked 13-0 teams between the current No. 6 Buford Wolves and a McEachern [Powder Springs, GA] Indians' squad that is currently ranked No. 1 in our "bubble" rankings (The NEXT 25). McEachern would be ranked in the Top 25 by then, and Buford would be no worse than No. 4, having moved ahead of current No. 3 St. John Bosco or No. 5 Centennial in California as one of those teams will have lost by then.

A potential win over McEachern in the semifinals would almost certainly get the Wolves to No. 3 (and possibly No. 2 if St. John Bosco loses anywhere in California's playoffs), setting up what could be a winner-take-all in Georgia for the national title. While a one-loss California champion would warrant consideration as well, it's also true that it hasn't been a banner year for California teams to date with the two frontrunners heading into the season (Mater Dei and St. John Bosco) already having a combined three losses.

Key Potential Games/Resume Builders

• Friday, 11/28/2025 — SN No. 20 Carrollton Trojans vs. SN No. 2 Grayson Rams
• Friday, 12/5/2025 — Top 25 McEachern Indians vs.  SN No. 6 Buford Wolves
• Monday, 12/15/2025 — SN No. 2 Grayson Rams vs. SN No. 6 Buford Wolves

Scenario No. 2: California's Southern Section/Division 1 state champion

SN No. 3 St. John Bosco [Bellflower, CA] Braves (9-1) OR
SN No. 5 Centennial [Corona, CA] Huskies (9-1) OR
SN No. 11 Sierra Canyon [Chatsworth, CA] Trailblazers (10-0)

What needs to happen for this scenario to take effect: The teams in this scenario really need Grayson and Buford to both lose in Georgia, and then one of these three teams would need to win out.

California's frontrunners are in the rare position of needing some help. Either Mater Dei or St. John Bosco has captured at least a share of the last eight national championships, but St. John Bosco enters the postseason at No. 3 while Mater Dei is No. 9 but effectively out of the conversation at the moment with two losses. St. John Bosco is in the best position here, but Centennial or Sierra Canyon could quickly climb into the Top 3 in the country if they keep winning.

The problem is, they won't be able to get all the way to No. 1, most likely, without a loss by Grayson ... and if that loss is to a Top 3 Buford in the final game of the season, it would be hard for them to stay ahead of the Wolves, too. But IF both Grayson and Buford lose somewhere in Georgia's playoffs, then if one of these three teams goes on to win the state championship in California, they would move to the front of the line in consideration for the national title.

Key Potential Games/Resume Builders

• Friday, 11/21/2025 — SN No. 3 St. John Bosco Braves vs. SN No. 11 Sierra Canyon Trailblazers
• Friday, 11/28/2025 — SN No. 3 St. John Bosco Braves OR SN no. 11 Sierra Canyon vs. SN No. 5 Centennial Huskies
• Friday, 12/12/2025 — SN No. 3 St. John Bosco Braves, SN No. 5 Centennial Huskies OR SN No. 11 Sierra Canyon Trailblazers vs. Northern California Champion in State Championship Bowl Game

Scenario No. 3: An undefeated Texas Class 6A Division I or Division II champion

SN No. 7 Southlake [TX] Carroll Dragons (11-0) OR
SN No. 12 Allen [TX] Eagles (11-0)

What needs to happen for this scenario to be in effect: Unfortunately, for the frontrunners in the Lone Star State, they would likely need Grayson and Buford to lose in Georgia's playoffs while also neeeding St. John Bosco, Centennial, and Sierra Canyon to lose in California's postseason.

Southlake Carroll and Allen both got the postseason started with wins Thursday night, although Allen's 22-15 victory over Lewisville [TX] was more of an escape as the Farmers had the ball late with a chance to tie or win it. But it's a good Lewisville team, and that maybe says more about the depth of the Texas UIL Class 6A Division I bracket which will provide the Eagles plenty of opportunities down the stretch to build their resume.

Perhaps the biggest drawback of Texas' two-tiered system in which two state champions are crowned in each classification is the fact that these two teams won't have an opportunity to meet in the playoffs. It would be a huge resume boost for either of them, and instead, they'll have to hope for all of the teams in Georgia and California ranked above them to lose. That isn't at all likely to happen, but if it did, the door would be cracked open far enough to allow a Texas champion to possibly walk through and have a shot at a national title.

Key Potential Games/Resume Builders

• Friday, 11/28/2025 — SN No. 7 Southlake Carroll Dragons vs. No. 39 Prosper [TX] Eagles
• Friday, 11/28/2025 — SN No. 12 Allen Eagles vs. Permian [Odessa, TX] Wildcats
• Friday, 12/5/2025 — SN No. 7 Southlake Carroll Dragons vs. Guyer [Denton, TX] Wildcats
• Friday, 12/5/2025 — SN No. 12 Allen Eagles vs. Coppell [TX] Cowboys
• Friday, 12/5/2025 — SN No. 7 Southlake Carroll Dragons vs. No. 46 DeSoto [TX] Eagles
• Friday, 12/12/2025 — SN No. 12 Allen Eagles vs. SN No. 18 Duncanville [TX] Panthers
• Friday, 12/19/2025 — SN No. 7 Southlake Carroll Dragons in Class 6A Division II championship game
• Friday, 12/19/2025 — SN No. 12 Allen Eagles vs. No. 37 (tie) Lake Travis [Austin, TX] Cavaliers

Scenario No. 4: SN No. 1 IMG Academy [Bradenton, FL] Ascenders

What needs to happen for this scenario to be in effect: Pretty much everything. IMG Academy had a clear path to the national title with a game on tap last week against the No. 4 St. Frances Academy Panthers before word leaked that the two teams were potentially trying to move the game to December to accommodate national media interest in the game which would have likely decided the national championship, at least in IMG's case.

But then last Friday, IMG Academy announced that it was backing out of the game altogether, and in a few short paragraphs, the Ascenders' leadership basically wrote the epitaph for their program's national title hopes. With no more games scheduled in the 2025 season, IMG Academy has chosen to rest on its laurels, still in the No. 1 spot here in The Sporting News High School Football Top 25. But that will likely change in two weeks when Grayson possibly beats Carrollton and California's Southern Section Division 1 champion is crowned, and it will be almost impossible at that point for the Ascenders to climb back into the No. 1 position.

On the outside looking in

The following teams are also ranked in the Top 12, and in some cases, they are ranked above teams that are listed in the national title picture above. But due to past results and future matchups, the following four teams just don't have a viable path at the moment to a national championship.

In the case of St. Frances Academy and Bishop Gorman, there doesn't appear to be any path at all. In the case of No. 8 St. Thomas Aquinas and No. 9 Mater Dei, we've outlined a couple of extremely remote paths that could have us re-evaluating at the end.

But for all intents and purposes, it appears these four schools will have to settle for glory of the state variety rather than the national kind.

SN No. 4 St. Frances Academy [Baltimore, MD] Panthers (8-1)

Through no fault of their own, the Panthers were essentially eliminated from consideration for the title of The Sporting News High School Football National Champion when current SN No. 1 IMG Academy canceled its game against the Panthers last Friday night.

The problem is this – the Panthers lost at current SN No. 3 St. John Bosco back on September 5 in a hardfought 21-14 decision. To move ahead of the Braves, they would need them to lose, but unfortunately, that would also be St. John Bosco's second loss. In that scenario, they will have lost to a team that couldn't beat two other teams on its schedule, further diminishing the Panthers' chances of climbing to No. 1. And if Bosco keeps winning, they'll be building an even better resume to stay ahead of St. Frances.

It's a no-win situation for the Panthers, and while we empathize with their position, there just isn't a viable path to move them up (including, unfortunately, in front of IMG Academy).

SN No. 8 St. Thomas Aquinas [Fort Lauderdale, FL] Raiders (9-1)

St. Thomas Aquinas is in a catch-22 similar to St. Frances Academy's quandary. That is, their only loss is to No. 9 Mater Dei which has two losses of its own. But if Mater Dei was to suddenly go on a run in California's Southern Section playoffs, the Raiders would likely fall back behind them. On the other hand, if the Monarchs lose early in the playoffs, then that would further diminish St. Thomas Aquinas's loss since it would be to a team with three losses in that scenario.

One narrow scenario that might work in the Raiders' favor that won't work for St. Frances above them (since St. Frances doesn't participate in the postseason) is the fact that they are headed into Florida's FHSAA Class 5A playoffs – the toughest bracket in the Sunshine State's postseason. If the eight frontrunners all lost, and Mater Dei went on to play for a state title in California before losing to the state's north champion, then there's a chance that St. Thomas Aquinas could climb into the top two or three by then. And a win in the Class 5A title game might open the door up a bit in that scenario for the Raiders to be considered for the national title.

That is an extremely narrow path that isn't a serious consideration at this point, but will, of course, be revisited if it starts to become a possibility down the road.

SN No. 9 Mater Dei [Santa Ana, CA] Monarchs

Mater Dei also has some extremely remote paths that could open up if the Monarchs get on a run and win a California state championship. Even with two losses, that would obviously restore them to the No. 1 position in the Golden State which is always an advantageous position.

But they would need all of the teams above them to lose, and then we'd have to consider whether it's enough to move them ahead of IMG Academy which still has some big wins on its resume. And in the wildest scenarios like this one, we would even have to consider some of the other undefeated teams currently ranked below the Monarchs (e.g., an undefeated Carrollton that goes on to win a Class 6A title in Georgia).

But, hey, you have to cling to hope so we're offering a glimmer of it here. The Monarchs certainly have the talent to go on a tear, and if they do, we'll keep a close eye on all the teams ranked above them.

SN No. 10 Bishop Gorman [Las Vegas, NV] Gaels

That brings us to the final team ranked above two of our eight frontrunners.

The Gaels' were the No. 1 team in the country when they lost to Mater Dei, 27-24, back on September 19. There's no reason to believe they wouldn't still be No. 1, especially considering the Monarchs' win over St. John Bosco two weeks ago in the regular-season finale.

Considering that the Gaels have the easiest playoff path of any of the other teams ranked above them that participate in their state association's postseason, the four points Bishop Gorman needed to turn that game into a win will be the difference between winning a state championship and a national championship.

That easy playoff path, however, makes one thing certain – the Gaels join St. Frances Academy as the only other team in the Top 12 where we can't currently envision a path that unfolds on the field to give them a chance at a national title.

MORE HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL PLAYOFF HEADLINES

• California 2025 playoff brackets (Southern Section)
• Florida 2025 playoff brackets (7A/6A/5A/4A)
• Georgia 2025 playoff brackets (6A/5A/4A)
• Louisiana 2025 playoff brackets (Division I/II)
• Oklahoma 2025 playoff brackets (6A/5A/4A)
• Texas 2025 playoff brackets (6A/5A/4A)