Statistical red flags suggest Geraldo Perdomo could face a steep drop in 2026

Arizona Diamondbacks slugger Geraldo Perdomo is coming off a breakout season. Across 161 games, he hit .290/.389/.462 with 20 home runs and 100 runs batted in. 

Those were career-numbers across the board. However, it was not enough to get Arizona into the postseason. 

With a clear shot in September, they went 0-5, erasing any hope they had. Now, after making a big splash by acquiring Nolan Arenado, they have high hopes going into the new season. 

MORE: Diamondbacks' 1.24 ERA reliever out for season following surgery

Statistical red flags suggest Geraldo Perdomo could face a steep drop in 2026

Perdomo's huge offensive numbers seemingly came out of nowhere. In four seasons before last year, he had combined for 14 home runs, and eclipsed that mark just last year alone. 

Is this a product of understanding his swing more, or did he just get lucky last season? Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter suggests the latter. 

"After hitting just 14 home runs in 1,420 plate appearances during his first four seasons in the big leagues, Perdomo's home run total was the most unexpected part of his elite 2025 campaign. However, his average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and bat speed raise some serious questions about the sustainability of his power surge. His defense and on-base ability still give him a 3-WAR floor, but significant regression seems likely."

Perdomo is near the bottom in terms of exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and bat speed, which makes it tough for him to come into the 2026 season and hit home run after home run. 

He still has elite contact skills and gets on base at a great clip, but fans may want to prepare themselves for less homers.

Perdomo can still be an excellent player without reaching 20 home runs again. All he needs to do is get on base and continue to be an elite defender, and Arizona will get its money's worth.

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