On Monday, the Spurs ended the Knicks 13-game winning streak. They won their first game of this series on the road. The Spurs win defied expectation. Game 3 in the Garden represented the first NBA Finals home game for the Knicks in 27 years. Adding to the moment was a real, tangible excitement in New York City. Yet San Antonio controlled the entire 4th quarter.
The series now looks very different than it did even four days ago. A 3-0 Knicks lead would have spelled the practical end of this series as no team has ever come back from being down 3-0. Win probablity in the series going down 3-0 is zero percent. The probability improves some after the Spurs won Game 3, but it is still only 14%.
If New York can win Game 4, the chances of winning the title are still incredibly good. However, if the Spurs can tie the series by winning game 4, the likelihood of winning the series goes up significantly, north of 70%. Leading into the all important Game 5. The team that wins Game 5 in the event the series was tied after Game 4 is over 80%.
Jalen Brunson has not yet had a "good" game in this series. If Brunson and Karl Anthony Towns can have games that resemble their season averages, and get noteworthy defensive and scoring help from even two other players, the Knicks will be in a great position. Conversely, San Antonio need a 30/20, rim protector type game from Wemby. If they can combine that with a good defensive effort and getting timely scoring from their role players, San Antonio will be in good shape. The concern is that both of those team ideas have not been present in the same game. Which ever team can do either, will likely be victorious.
Finally, how will the fans at Madison Square Garden react tonight? Will they bring the same energy and create an atmosphere that is difficult for the opponent? Or did the wind get completely taken out of their sails after the Game 3 loss?
More: Spurs vs. Knicks live score, updates, highlights from 2026 NBA Finals Game 4
Spurs vs Knicks NBA Finals Game 4 Box Score
Game leading stat line:
Win Probability:
San Antonio Spurs
New York Knicks
WATCH: Stream Spurs vs Knicks Game 4 with Peacock
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