Saudi Oil Flow Surge Continues Into Early July After Output Hike

5znjvraho7mbdb}yh5v]zlu(_media_dl_1.png Tanker tracking data compiled by

Article content

(Bloomberg) — Saudi Arabia’s seaborne oil flows remain at elevated rates in the wake of an production from the kingdom last month during heightened regional tensions.

Article content

Total flows to destinations outside the kingdom averaged 6.43 million barrels a day in the first half of July, according to vessel tracking compiled by Bloomberg, putting them on course for a 16-month high. The final number might end up lower because two weeks of vessel movements offer only a limited snapshot of data.

Article content

Article content

Article content

Saudi Arabia told OPEC on Tuesday that it pumped 9.752 million barrels a day last month, a move that it had already explained in a post on X as being a response to regional tensions. Israel’s short war with Iran prompted concern that Tehran might respond by seeking to block the Strait of Hormuz, a stretch of water through which the vast majority of all the Middle East’s oil must flow.

Article content

Article content

Saudi Arabia’s oil supply underpins global energy stability giving it unmatched market influence on prices among producer nations. It’s also the de facto leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the wider OPEC+ group, urging other members to keep their own output in check.

Article content

Saudi Arabia’s energy ministry didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. 

Article content

The country’s June production submission to OPEC put its production at 385,000 barrels a day above its OPEC target. However, OPEC chose to publish a lower “supply to market” figure of 9.356 million barrels a day for Saudi Arabia in its monthly report earlier this week, a move that allowed the kingdom to stay within the quota. The lower number excludes movements to storage.

Article content

Article content

Riyadh is also entitled to pump more crude this month anyway under its agreement with OPEC.

Article content

If maintained for the next two weeks, the exports would be the highest since March 2024, although the timing of individual cargo loadings can have a huge impact on averages when tanker tracking is applied over short timeframes. A single 2 million barrel shipment moves the average by almost 140,000 barrels a day when calculated over 15 days — twice the impact when compared to a full month.

Article content

The nation’s flows over the past four weeks amount to 6.18 million a day, largely in line with their average in the first five months of the year, reflecting lower flows in the second-half of June. The country’s shipments have been higher in the first half of four out of six months so far in 2025.

Article content

The elevated flows so far in July may reflect the last stages of moving June’s production boost out of the kingdom to storage terminals outside the region. Saudi officials said stockpiling overseas amid heightened tensions in the Persian Gulf was behind last month’s surge.

Article content

The equivalent of 2.1 million barrels a day of crude was loaded onto tankers heading to China in the first half of July.