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Canada is technically in a recession if you go by old economics textbooks. But that’s a thin reason to start daydreaming about future rate cuts.
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Friday’s GDP report was skewed by quirky factors in the metals market, and preliminary April growth is looking much stronger.
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Given that and ample inflation uncertainty, markets are still fully pricing in a Bank of Canada rate hike by year-end, according to derivatives data from London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG). And that may not change unless peace miraculously takes hold in the Persian Gulf and oil gets much cheaper.
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Meanwhile, the mortgage market made a few minor tweaks to leading rates — nothing dramatic.
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To start with, we saw five-basis-point increases in several of the lowest nationally advertised fixed offers. A five-year fixed now starts at 4.24 per cent uninsured, or near four per cent if insured.
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Three-year terms stay the crowd favourite though, going for at least 10 to 20 basis points less than five-year terms if uninsured, and roughly 4.04 per cent and up for insured borrowers.
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On the variable side, where interest is picking up after today’s recession chatter, multiple banks improved discounts this week by at least five basis points.
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But keep your eye on Canadian and U.S. core inflation, as they’ll decide the fate of rate floaters. A U.S.-Iran “peace” deal provides hope on that front, but guarantees precisely nothing yet.
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Robert McLister is a mortgage strategist, interest rate analyst and editor of MortgageLogic.news. You can follow him on X at @RobMcLister.
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For the best national insured and uninsured mortgage rates, updated daily, please visit our mortgage rate page here.
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