Trump Sends Mixed Signals on Iran as War Enters Fourth Month

maezlx4v0gw94{]32qanyooc_media_dl_1.png Bloomberg reporting

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(Bloomberg) — The White House has sent conflicting messages on the prospects for a deal with Iran, highlighting President Donald Trump’s struggles to find an off-ramp to a conflict now in its fourth month.

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Trump said in a social media post Friday he was ready to make a “final determination” on a preliminary agreement to extend a fragile ceasefire. But the run-up to that decision has offered little clarity to markets over how the warring countries will handle seemingly intractable issues such as the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

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Traders have been whipsawed by abrupt turns in public rhetoric from US officials, as Trump has shifted from claims he can secure a “great deal” to fresh threats against Iran — and with other advisers offering their own contradictory statements.

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The week started with both sides signaling they were closer than ever to ending the conflict. Markets largely bought into the optimism, with stocks rallying to another record high and oil paring some wartime gains. Stocks rose Friday on deal hopes. 

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Still, investors face the danger that their expectations will be upended by yet another change in direction from Trump. There’s an “uncertainty discount” at play, said Kevin Book, managing director at ClearView Energy Partners, a Washington-based consulting firm, with markets facing “the challenge of going into a weekend not knowing what the president is going to say.” 

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Trump has no public events on his schedule for Friday. He’s shown a penchant for launching military strikes and other significant announcements after US markets close and on weekends. Much of the Middle East has been observing the Eid holiday this week.

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In his post on Friday, Trump repeated demands that Iran never develop nuclear weapons and reopen Hormuz without tolls. But he did not say whether Iran had agreed. 

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The post merely highlighted the uncertainty clouding negotiations in recent days. On Thursday, US officials confirmed that negotiators had reached a memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and launch further talks on the nuclear issue, pending Trump’s approval.

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Yet just hours after that confirmation, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declined from the White House podium to even acknowledge a tentative deal. Vice President JD Vance later told reporters the sides were “going back and forth on a couple of language points.”

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Bessent outlined three “red lines” as prerequisites for any agreement: Iran reopening Hormuz, surrendering its highly enriched uranium and ending its nuclear program. Yet even on those sticking points, Trump has sent mixed messages on whether and how he might compromise. 

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On Hormuz, Trump previously said Iran and the US could manage its traffic in a joint venture. This week, Trump said emphatically no one country would control the strait but that the US would “watch over” it. On Iran’s nuclear program, Trump has said he would accept only a permanent suspension. More recently, he told reporters a 20-year halt to the program would be “enough.”