Quantum computing is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for Canada. Here’s how we can grow the industry at home

Quantum computing offers the chance to get "Canadian brilliance" right. Let’s not squander the opportunity. Photo by Handout/Scott Murdoch/Xanadu Quantum Technologies Inc.

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When artificial intelligence godfather Geoffrey Hinton first championed AI, most peers dismissed it as fringe. He and a small band in Canada spent decades proving neural networks could work.

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As the world caught on, AI’s centre of gravity shifted south. Google LLC acquired Hinton’s University of Toronto-based startup in 2013, incorporated by himself and two of his students, Alex Krizhevsky and future OpenAI co-founder Ilya Sutskever. The latter two would go on to work out of Google’s Mountain View, Calif., headquarters. Soon after, Microsoft Corp., Meta Platforms Inc. and Apple Inc. drew Canadian researchers with resources this country couldn’t match. The ideas were born here, but the value scaled abroad.

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Today, Hinton holds a Nobel Prize, while his colleagues and the talent they’ve fostered in Canada lead labs and companies around the world.

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Like AI, quantum computing was once dismissed as science fiction. And like AI, it now sits at a hinge moment. The decisions that Canada makes in the next few years will determine whether this country leads the world in a generation-defining technology. Here’s how we make sure that we continue the momentum so the moment is not lost.

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Quantum’s potential is immense. These machines can solve problems today’s computers can’t touch because they can potentially perform calculations exponentially faster than classical computers; think seconds instead of billions of years. This could accelerate drug discovery, optimize supply chains and advance materials science. The sector could generate up to US$154 billion globally by 2030, according to a study commissioned by the National Research Council of Canada.

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In Budget 2025, Canada committed $334.3 million over five years to strengthen Canada’s quantum ecosystem. It is encouraging to see this commitment, but it falls short of the $2 billion a federal advisory council recommended in 2024 to specifically support and keep quantum firms here.

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For comparison, the U.S. has made generational bets through DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative, which invests in a few firms that have a viable path to a commercially useful quantum computer by 2033. Each firm that gets through all three stages gets up to US$316 million.

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That’s not to say Canada is completely behind. In 2025, Ottawa launched the inaugural Canadian Quantum Champions Program, starting with a total investment of up to $92 million in  companies selected for phase one. The difference in dollars is understandable given the sheer size of the American economy, but that doesn’t close the door on Canada’s leadership. If we can’t compete on dollars, we can compete on our investment strategy.

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Canada is deploying its federal quantum funding through its Defence Industrial Strategy, as quantum will redefine defence in cybersecurity, sensing technologies and more around the world. Adversaries are already stockpiling encrypted data today to crack once quantum machines mature, and Canada’s own cryptography agency warns that a computer capable of breaking many current standards could arrive as soon as the 2030s.