Hungarians Sweep Away Orban After 16 Years in Seismic Vote

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Magyar had campaigned on a pledge to not only oust the MAGA movement’s populist icon but to bring down his system. Much of his momentum now rides on fulfilling that promise — and doing it just got more manageable with Tisza appearing to have surpassed the 133-seat threshold to give it a two-thirds parliamentary majority.

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But he’s also going to inherit some of the economic challenges that contributed to Orban’s undoing and were only made worse by the the prime minister’s pre-election spending spree, which included lifetime income tax exemptions for mothers and increases in pensions and wages.

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The government ran up a cash-flow based deficit of 3.4 trillion forint ($10.6 billion) in the first quarter, a year-to-date record. Magyar will have to take urgent steps to trim the budget to avert Hungary’s sovereign credit rating being cut to junk.

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Magyar has said he’ll ask the Orban-allied president, Tamas Sulyok, to shorten the 30-day period until the formation of the new parliament for a swift transition of power. He’s cited concern that the Orban-dominated lame duck legislature could pass laws to hamper his administration.

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The opposition leader has vowed to oust Orban’s key loyalists such as the president, top justices, the chief prosecutor and the heads of several state regulators. He also plans to eventually pass a new constitution, change election rules that were widely seen as favoring Fidesz and take public media’s news coverage, which Orban had reduced to a government mouthpiece, off the air until balanced political coverage is restored.

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Those changes are needed to return Hungary to the European mainstream and to liberate its political and economic sphere from Fidesz’s influence, Magyar said on Sunday after he cast his vote.

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A two-thirds majority will also help a Magyar administration pass key legislation to unlock some of the more than $20 billion in EU funds that had been withheld from the Orban government on rule-of-law and corruption concerns — and which a cash-strapped budget badly needs. They include approving anti-graft laws, cooperation with the EU chief prosecutor’s office and restoring media and academic freedoms.

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Magyar has vowed to introduce a two term limit for prime ministers to prevent Hungary from reverting to authoritarian rule. He’s said that would disqualify Orban, who has served four consecutive and five overall terms, from running in the future for the top government job.

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The prospect of easing tensions with the EU — and the potential for a Magyar administration to eventually embrace the adoption of the euro, something Orban has adamantly opposed — has fueled a currency and bond rally in Hungary months ahead of vote. The forint strengthened near a three-year high in the days ahead of the election.

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Orban himself had relied on a so-called supermajority since 2010 to pass a new constitution and election rules without opposition support and extend his influence over all walks of life, form court benches to boardrooms to classrooms. 

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In the process, the prime minister had castigated minorities, notably the LGBTQ+ community and immigrants, targeted journalists and independent civil society in what were widely seen as tactics out of the Kremlin’s playbook.

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Magyar, who describes himself as a center-right conservative, united liberals and disaffected Fidesz voters like himself under the Tisza umbrella. He focused on addressing the economic concerns of Hungarians, including a cost-of-living, education and health-care crisis.

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He’s also vowed to hold senior officials accountable for what’s been seen as the capture of state assets and which led to the creation of a new class of politically connect super-rich, including Orban’s family and friends. Hungary has plunged to last place in the EU in graft watchdog Transparency International’s corruption rankings.