Paul Skenes and two other Pirates pitchers might have a fastball problem

The Pittsburgh Pirates are having a more successful season in 2026 than they've had in recent years, but there is a bit of a reason for some worries.

One of the big worries about the team revolves around Paul Skenes, as he's gone from a Cy Young candidate and one of the best pitchers in baseball to just a very good ace. There's nothing totally wrong with this current production, but it's a worrying decline.

As Alex Stumpf of Book-Rule Bucs shared on Twitter/x, there are three Pirates pitchers, including Skenes, who, according to Baseball Savant, are throwing at least one mile per hour slower this year than they did a year ago. This is a bit of a problem.

Pirates might have a fastball problem with 3 pitchers, including Paul Skenes

"According to Baseball Savant, 14 qualified National League pitchers have had their fastball velocity drop at least 1 MPH from 2025 to 2026. Three are Pirates (MLdzinski, Keller, and Skenes)," Stumpf shared.

Looking at the leaderboard of pitchers' fastballs, which have seen the largest decrease in velocity, Carmen Mlodzinski has seen his fastball drop from 96.0 mph on average to 94.7 mph for a 1.3 mph decrease.

Mitch Keller was throwing his fastball at 93.7 mph last year, but this season it's down to 92.6 mph. It's just a 1.1 difference, but that might be enough for hitters to catch up to his pitching.

Skenes, meanwhile, went from throwing 98.1 mph fastballs on average during the 2025 season and his Cy Young campaign to averaging 97 mph on his fastball in 2026.

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The Pirates' Cy Young winner has a 3.10 ERA this season with 114 strikeouts. That's a very solid season, all things considered. But this underlying fastball metric is a little bit concerning.

Add in Keller and Mlodzinski also seeing their fastball decrease by at least 1.0 mph in 2026 from their 2025 figure, and it's hard not to worry a little bit about some of the key Pirates pitchers this season.

While the decrease in velocity isn't the sole reason for Keller and Skenes regressing a little bit this season, with Mlodzinski pitching better this year than he did a year ago, it is still a worrying number for these Pirates pitchers.

If nothing else, this is a trend to follow as the season progresses with Skenes, as if he can start picking up the pace on his fastball, especially if a postseason spot is in play, then a lot of the concerns from this worrying statistic can be squashed.

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