Nifty at 10-month low: Iran war, US Fed, crude oil among 9 factors likely to steer D-Street this week

The Nifty ended the week down 5.3% as the Iran–Israel war, a falling rupee, persistent FII outflows, and fuel supply worries weighed on domestic markets. When trading resumes on Monday, a series of key events scheduled for the week are likely to influence investor sentiment.

The 50-stock index slipped 488.05 points, or 2.06%, to close at 23,151.10.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said the index has moved further away from the 200-DMA as selling intensified. The RSI has entered the oversold zone and the trend remains weak, he added, expecting further downside with RSI languishing in deep oversold territory.

“In the short term, the trend may continue to remain weak, with any rise likely to be sold into. On the downside, the index may fall towards 23,000–22,800, while resistance is placed at 23,400,” De said.

1.Iran-Isreal War

By the time global markets begin trading on Monday, the Iran–Israel war would have entered its 17th day. Markets are expected to remain jittery as long as the conflict continues.

With any signs of a truce between the warring sides appearing distant, AFP reported Iran vowing to inflict what its foreign ministry spokesman described as an “unforgettable lesson” on its enemies in the United States and Israel.

“We cannot accept that they talk about dialogue and ceasefire now and then and after that we face the repetition of these crimes and war. Our armed forces are very determined to firmly teach the enemy an unforgettable lesson,” AFP quoted Iranian diplomat Esmaeil Baqaei as saying.

2. Fed FOMC

The US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting will be closely watched this week amid concerns that the ongoing conflict could disrupt inflation dynamics if it drags on.

The rate-setting committee will begin its two-day meeting on Tuesday, March 17, and announce its policy decision on Wednesday, March 18.

The central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady as US inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. The consumer price index rose 2.4% in February on a year-on-year basis, according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

3. US markets

Domestic markets will also take cues from Wall Street. Major US indices ended lower on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 119.38 points, or 0.26%, to close at 46,558.50. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 206.62 points, or 0.93%, to 22,105.40, while the S&P 500 declined 0.61%, or about 40 points, to end at 6,632.19.

4.. Crude oil

All eyes will be on crude oil prices. Benchmark Brent and US WTI crude surged more than 3% in the previous session and could extend gains when trading resumes.

US WTI crude futures settled at $99.31 per barrel, rising $3.58 or 3.74%, while Brent crude climbed 3.43%, or $3.41, to close at $103.14 per barrel.

5.. FII / DII action

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold Indian equities worth Rs 10,716.64 crore on Friday. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs), meanwhile, were net buyers at Rs 9,977.42 crore.

FIIs have offloaded equities worth Rs 52,704 crore in the first fortnight of March, with Friday recording the highest single-day outflow of 2026. On a year-to-date basis, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have sold Indian equities worth Rs 66,051 crore.

6. Sector watch

The Iran–Israel/US conflict has been impacting several sectors. Oil marketing companies (OMCs) could come under pressure if crude prices rise further, as higher input costs may squeeze their margins. On the other hand, upstream explorers such as ONGC and Oil India could benefit from higher oil prices.

Paint and tyre companies, which use crude derivatives as raw materials, may also face pressure. Airline and tourism stocks are expected to react when markets reopen. With LPG shortages already affecting restaurants, further correction in quick-service restaurant (QSR) stocks cannot be ruled out.

7. Technical triggers

Decoding the Nifty charts, Dr Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services, said the index has decisively breached its critical 23,800 support and is now trading at a fresh 10-month low, signalling a strong bearish grip.

For the coming week, the psychological 23,000 level will be crucial. A breakdown below this could drag the index towards 22,800 and even 22,500, he said.

“On the upside, 23,800 and 24,050 now act as stiff resistance levels. The strategy remains ‘sell on rise’ until the index decisively reclaims the 24,000 mark. Expect continued volatility as the market searches for a bottom amid escalating Middle East tensions,” he added.

8. Rupee vs dollar

The rupee’s movement against the US dollar will also be closely tracked.

The Indian rupee fell to a record low on Friday amid concerns that the Iran war-driven surge in oil prices could disrupt India’s growth-inflation dynamics and dent capital flows. The rupee weakened to 92.4750 per dollar, surpassing its previous record low of 92.3575 hit on Thursday.

It eventually closed at 92.4550, down 0.7% for the week.

The benchmark Nifty 50 has slipped into correction territory since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, with the index falling about 2% on Friday.

Analysts told Reuters that a prolonged Middle East conflict could worsen the rupee’s outlook significantly, with persistently high energy prices potentially pushing the currency beyond 95 per dollar.

9.IPO watch

Activity in the primary market is expected to remain strong, with three IPOs opening for subscription this week and three companies scheduled to list.

Mainboard IPOs of GSP Crop Science and Central Mine Planning and Design Institute (CMPDI) will be in focus.
Agrochemical manufacturer GSP Crop Science plans to raise Rs 400 crore through its public offering. The IPO will open on March 16 and close on March 18, with a price band of Rs 304–320 per share.

CMPDI, a consultancy arm of Coal India, will open its IPO on March 20 and close on March 24. The grey market premium (GMP) is currently around Rs 24.

Meanwhile, the SME IPO of Novus Loyalty will open on March 17 and close on March 20. The price band has been set at Rs 139–146 per share, and the company aims to raise about Rs 60.15 crore.

Stocks of Rajputana Stainless, Apsis Aerocom and Raajmarg Infra Investment Trust are also scheduled to list on the exchanges this week.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)