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Weeks 17 and 18 in NFL are all about scenarios. To name a few, there are teams that are win-and-in for a division title or playoff berth. Others will find motivation or discouragement in the result of an earlier game or some flickering numbers on the scoreboard.
Some teams are decimated by injuries and down to their third-string quarterback, or even a 44-year-old who was close to losing his health insurance. And there are a few teams that are already ordering the doughnuts for their draft war rooms.
Most of the games on this week’s slate contain one or more angles bettors can act upon that go beyond yardage stats and DVOA rankings. It’s our job to apply the proper meaning to these narratives, with full knowledge that must-win teams don’t always win and tanking teams don’t always lose.
Saturday
CHARGERS (-1.5) over Texans
This matchup contains multiple scenarios. The Texans would clinch a playoff spot with a win. The Chargers did that last week. But not so fast on this being an edge for Houston, as L.A. would win the AFC West with victories in its final two games (including next week vs. the Broncos) and still has a path to the AFC top seed and bye via tiebreakers.
The injury situation seems to carry a little more weight here. The Texans could be without their two offensive tackles — Aireontae Ersery and Trent Brown — who went down in the previous game and have a short week to recover. That spells trouble for team that’s won seven games in a row but scored more than 23 points in just two of those.
Ravens (+4.5) over PACKERS
The Packers were in position to clinch a playoff spot with a Lions loss Thursday. The Ravens at 7-8 must win out and see the Steelers lose to the Browns on Sunday to steal the AFC North. Since Baltimore’s game is Saturday, they will be able to play with desperation and won’t be demotivated by the scoreboard.
The other key factor here is that both teams could have or be missing their starting quarterback. I think it’s a probably close to a wash if it’s Tyler Huntley vs. Malik Willis. If Lamar Jackson and/or Jordan Love were to play, it would change things, but for now Ravens desperation is the best angle I see.
Sunday
Patriots (-13.5) over JETS
Don’t overthink this one. The Patriots would clinch the AFC East with a win and send them to Week 18 with a chance for the top seed. Aaron Glenn is leaving Brady Cook in place to serve as tank commander, which is a wise decision. If Cook plays a little better, this spread could get dicey, but Patriots minus the big number feels like the only option.
New York Jets quarterback Brady Cook throws a pass during the third quarter against the Dolphins last week.
Charles Wenzelberg / New York PostRAIDERS (+1.5) over Giants
It’s being billed as a likely tussle for the No. 1 overall pick, but I don’t think it will be much of a battle. The Giants currently hold it, and I don’t see them giving it up. They’re already typing out the trade demands for teams that might want to move up for Fernando Mendoza.
As for the Raiders, if Pete Carroll stays I can see them shooting big for a star veteran, perhaps Joe Burrow or Lamar Jackson, to use with Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers next season. I think they’re still trying to win.
BENGALS (-7.5) over Cardinals
Zero playoff implications but a few nice angles. Zac Taylor has guaranteed money for 2027, so he should be back with the cheapo Bengals. Now would be a good time to show that it was injuries and not his coaching that led to this disastrous season. The Cardinals are the perfect foe for a potential blowout. They’ve lost seven in a row and given up 40 points or more in four of those games.
BROWNS (+3) over Steelers
On face value, it’s Steelers -3 all day long. But as we’ve been saying, this isn’t a normal situation. The Steelers would clinch the AFC North a day earlier if the Ravens were to lose at Green Bay. I took the points in that game, but there’s a better than 50 percent chance the Packers win outright. That would make this Steelers-Browns game meaningless, and Mike Tomlin has suggested he would rest Aaron Rodgers and other key starters in that case.
TITANS (+2.5) over Saints
These are a couple of teams that have won their way out of the No. 1 overall pick. For the Saints, it’s the burgeoning Tyler Shough-Chris Olave combo, and for the Titans, Tony Pollard has topped 100 yards rushing three weeks in a row. It’s a watchable bottom-feeder game, and I’m willing to take a few points with the home team to see how it turns out.
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Jaguars (-6.5) over COLTS
Monday night vs. the 49ers, the Colts defense looked like the Giants defense — if the Giants had just eight players on the field. This could get very ugly against a Jaguars team that won the first meeting by 17 (in the game Daniel Jones got injured) and has been rolling offensively since then. The victory last week at Denver was an A-plus effort.
Buccaneers (-6) over DOLPHINS
The Bucs have lost so many games of late (six of their past seven), it feels as if we should be talking about them in terms of the draft and not the division title. But in reality, the Bake-anneers need only to beat the Dolphins and Panthers to win the NFC South. The Tua Tagovailoa benching and 45-21 home beating by the Bengals feels like full surrender in Miami.
PANTHERS (+7) over Seahawks
OK, so here’s a game that has playoff implications for both teams. The Panthers are closer to survival mode while the Seahawks are already in and control their destiny to win the NFC West and get a bye.
Not sure why the spread is so large here. The Seahawks have posted numerous blowout wins, but the past two weeks their margin has been two points and one point. The Panthers’ past three games — and five of their past seven — have been decided by exactly three points.
Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) celebrates with wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan (4) after a play during the first half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Bank of America Stadium. Bob Donnan-Imagn ImagesEagles (+1.5) over BILLS
This is the only late-window alternative to Giants-Raiders, so almost all eyes will be on Orchard Park. Though the Bills likely will see the AFC East slip away with a Patriots win at the Jets, they’ll still be playing it out with anywhere from fifth to seventh seed still on the table. The problem is, Josh Allen is questionable with a foot injury and his status should be more important to Sean McDermott than a spot or two of seeding.
49ERS (-3) over Bears
Chicago is coming off one of its biggest regular-season wins in decades — a miracle one against the hated Packers at that. If the Packers were to lose Saturday to the Ravens, the Bears would be in position to claim the NFC North title and at least the No. 2 seed.
It’s a great story, but the 49ers will have something to say about it. They’ve won five in a row to get to 11-4 and have been putting up huge numbers of points with Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey. I don’t see the Bears holding them down or keeping up with them on the scoreboard.
Monday
FALCONS (+7.5) over Rams
This is the type of number that will always interest me with the Falcons, particularly at home. And this could be one of those demotivation spots for the Rams, who already clinched a playoff spot but would see their chances to climb higher dimmed if the Seahawks win Sunday.
BEST BETS: Raiders, 49ers, Falcons.
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Raiders (Locks 6-10 in 2025).
LAST WEEK: 9-6-1 overall, 1-1-1 Best Bets.
THURSDAY: Commanders (W), Lions (L), Broncos.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Dave Blezow’s one of the longest tenured NFL handicappers at the Post with picks dating back to 1994. He won the Post’s NFL betting standings in 2021 and the Playoffs most recently in 2023.
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